No. 1 Miami heads to Chapel Hill this week with a chance to lean on what it does best: rush the passer. And the matchup looks tailor-made for the Hurricanes, because North Carolina’s protection issues have piled up across the board.
The Tar Heels have been giving up pressure far too often, allowing a 38 percent pressure rate, a 6.8 percent sack rate, and pressure-free drop-backs on just 57 percent of their snaps. That’s not one weak spot dragging the group down, either.
It’s been a steady accumulation of breakdowns. Left guard Andrew Threatt has allowed 17 pressures and three sacks.
Center Christo Kelly has given up 13 pressures and one sack. Right guard Aidan Banfield has surrendered ten pressures and two sacks.
Left tackle Jordan Hall has had a major impact on how the line performs. He missed three games and had a rough outing against Clemson, when he allowed seven pressures and a sack, though he bounced back against Syracuse.
North Carolina’s overall PFF pass-blocking grade sits at 111th in the country, and the contrast with Hall in the lineup has been stark. Without him against Notre Dame, Pittsburgh and Duke, the Tar Heels posted grades of 43.8 and 42.4.
With him against Syracuse, that number jumped to 75.3.
That protection problem matters even more because of what Billy Edwards becomes when the pocket gets messy. With a clean pocket, he’s been a steady enough quarterback, putting up 8.9 yards per attempt, which ranks 31st, and an EPA per play that sits 36th.
Under pressure, though, the drop-off is sharp. Edwards falls to 86th in rating, goes to 4.9 yards per attempt, has two touchdowns against three interceptions, and has taken 14 of his 15 sacks in those pressured situations.
The frequency is part of the problem, too. Edwards is pressured on 38.2 percent of his drop-backs, which ranks 105th out of 118 quarterbacks. So the version of him that struggles is showing up almost four times out of every ten plays.
Even so, Edwards isn’t panicking back there. His time to throw under pressure is 3.26 seconds, quicker than 99 of 118 quarterbacks, and his pressure-to-sack rate of 15.7 percent is right around the middle.
He’s throwing it away seven times under pressure and taking sacks at a normal clip. That points more to the line breaking down early than to a quarterback drifting into trouble.
What he isn’t doing is turning those pressured snaps into explosive plays. Edwards has zero big-time throws under pressure, five turnover-worthy plays, and only seven scrambles on 89 pressured drop-backs. He’s managing the mess, not creating through it.
Blitzing has made the picture even worse for North Carolina. Opponents are sending extra rushers on 46.8 percent of Edwards’ drop-backs, which ranks 111th of 118, and the results have been ugly.
When he’s blitzed, defenses are getting home with pressure 45 percent of the time. His completion percentage against the blitz is 53.1 percent, and his average depth of target drops from 9.3 yards unblitzed to 7.6 yards when the heat is on.
The quick answers haven’t been clean, either, because his receivers are dropping 11.9 percent of blitzed targets.
There is one bright spot in that split: Edwards has completed eight of 11 touchdown passes against the blitz this season. If the hot read is there and the catch is made, he can punish it. The issue is that it hasn’t shown up often enough.
Timing matters with him, too. When Edwards gets rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds, the numbers are solid: a 107.6 rating, seven touchdowns, one interception, and plus-0.26 EPA.
Once that clock runs past 2.5 seconds, the production falls off hard to a 75.8 rating, four touchdowns, four interceptions, and 13 sacks. More than half of his drop-backs, 56.7 percent, fall into that slower window, and his big-time-throw rate on those plays is just 0.9 percent, which ranks 219th of 224 quarterbacks.
Miami’s defense is built to challenge exactly that kind of offense. The Hurricanes blitz on 34.6 percent of opposing drop-backs, generate pressure on 36.8 percent of them, and get to the quarterback in an average of 2.3 seconds - faster than any look North Carolina and Edwards have seen this season.
The Tar Heels’ best path is obvious: get the ball out quickly. But Miami has the personnel to sit on that plan, and North Carolina’s 11.8 percent drop rate on quick throws is the worst in the country.
The Hurricanes also bring several pass rushers who can make the game tilt. Damon Wilson has 3.5 sacks and 26 pressures, along with an 82.0 PFF pass-rushing grade that ranks 37th nationally.
His pressure rate is 17.9 percent, and his average time to pressure is 2.2 seconds. In obvious passing situations, he wins at a 30.9 percent clip, which ranks 15th.
Marquise Lightfoot has been the finisher. He leads Miami with five sacks and has added 24 pressures, with a 17.2 percent pressure rate.
In obvious passing situations, his win rate is 26.3 percent. Both Wilson and Lightfoot sit inside the top ten nationally in win rate.
Armondo Blount gives Miami a different kind of disruption. He wins with power, can hold the edge, and helps against the run as well. He has produced 17 pressures, seven quarterback hits, and a 14.5 percent win rate.
Miami also has help from the back end when it comes to pressure. Safety JJ Dunnigan has recorded seven pressures on only 17 blitzes as he continues to grow into that role during the season.
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