Florida State walks into this rivalry game with a stat sheet that makes life miserable on both sides of the ball, and the numbers around Miami keep pointing in the same direction.
Former Hurricanes wide receiver Ahmmon Richards summed up the matchup bluntly: "This is a terrible matchup for Florida State on both sides of the ball, and they know it."
Start with Miami’s offense against Florida State’s defense, and the gap jumps off the page. The Hurricanes are fourth nationally in scoring at 42.8 points per game.
Florida State sits 91st in scoring defense, allowing 29. Miami ranks fifth in yards per play, while the Seminoles are 117th in yards per play allowed.
Through the air, Miami is sixth at 9.6 yards per attempt; Florida State is 115th, giving up 8.5.
The recent tape only hardens that view. SMU passed on the Seminoles.
Alabama passed on them. Louisville barely had to, because Louisville leaned on the ground game and ran for roughly 400 yards.
One Miami number that stands out: the Hurricanes are 29th in sack rate allowed at 3.7 percent. Richards pointed out that the conversation around offensive lines has centered on Georgia and Alabama, but Miami sits ahead of both in that category. He also noted the competition matters.
Richards’ take on the matchup is straightforward: "This is a terrible matchup for Florida State with our offense and the way we score."
He expects Miami to attack early, and he believes there’s a little extra edge to the game plan. He said, "I feel like Dawson and that DC have an internal kind of little beef, competition, whatever you want to call it."
That usually means the bag of tricks comes out when Miami sees Florida State. Richards is expecting shot plays and gadget looks on Saturday.
Beating Florida State’s pass rush, in his view, isn’t much of a puzzle either.
"Their defense is not good," AR said. "They can create some sacks if your quarterback can't throw the football."
Darian Mensah can throw the football.
On the other side, Florida State has taken different approaches the last two seasons to try to survive this series. In 2024, with Cam Ward on a Heisman chase, the Seminoles played it soft and tried to keep him in front of them.
They wound up losing slow. Last season, they sold out to stop the run, and Carson Beck answered with the best downfield passing game Miami had all year.
This time, Richards thinks the focus will be on one target. "Don't allow Malachi Toney to beat us," he said.
That would likely mean a Clemson-style plan: bracket help, a jam at the line, a safety over the top and single coverage elsewhere. Richards doesn’t sound convinced that approach will hold up, especially since Clemson tried something similar and didn’t get the result it wanted.
He also pointed to Malachi Toney’s mindset. Two of his best plays last season were wiped out, including one against Florida State - the stiff-arm and sideline burst that got called back. Richards expects that to fuel him.
"I think he gets back to striking the Heisman pose a little bit."
Florida State’s offense presents the tighter test, at least on paper, though even that edge isn’t much to worry Miami. The Seminoles are 44th in scoring at 30.4 points per game.
Miami leads the country in scoring defense at 10.5. Florida State ranks 52nd in yards per play at 5.7, while Miami is ninth in yards per play allowed at 4.3.
The Seminoles can move it through the air some, ranking 41st in yards per attempt, but Miami is 18th in yards per attempt allowed, and that number comes with two starting corners out.
The run game is where Miami believes it can slam the door. Florida State ranks 49th at 4.6 yards per carry. Miami is first in the nation, allowing just 1.9.
The pressure point Richards would circle is Florida State’s offensive line against Miami’s edge rush. The Seminoles are 120th in sack percentage allowed at 9.93 percent. Miami’s pass rush ranks 25th at 8.14 percent, though Richards noted that ranking undersells what the Hurricanes have done because opposing teams have leaned on quick throws against them.
Ashton Daniels, in his view, won’t be able to hold the ball the way Florida State sometimes needs.
Miami’s strength matches up directly with what Florida State wants to do. The Seminoles want to run and build shots off that.
Richards’ summary was direct: "They're going to have to beat us with explosive plays, and they don't have it." He added that after seeing Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate in the playoffs, nobody on Florida State’s receiver depth chart is causing Miami sleepless nights.
The only positive he was willing to offer about the Seminoles’ skill group was Ousmane Kromah, whom he called a pretty good running back.
Still, Richards didn’t dismiss the rivalry angle. He called it a game where nobody on Miami should act like the emotion disappears.
The underdog factor matters too. Florida State comes in as a nearly 22-point underdog, and Richards pointed to the weekend’s slate as proof that underdogs can shake things up. He also mentioned what happened in the Red River game.
He thinks the opening drives could be competitive. If Florida State lands the first punch, the night could turn into a shot-for-shot fight. But if one side starts to unravel, he doesn’t expect it to be Miami.
"They're the ones with the coach on the hot seat, they're the ones already carrying losses. If we execute early, I think they fold faster than people expect."
And there’s a bigger frame to all of this. Notre Dame is the kind of game people usually point to when they talk about Miami’s later-season goals. Richards’ point is that the Hurricanes only get there by handling a game like this in October.
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