ESPN’s preseason numbers paint a clear picture of Miami’s 2026 schedule: the Hurricanes are expected to spend most of the year in control.
The ESPN College Football Power Index has Miami at No. 7 overall entering the season, trailing only Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame, Oregon, Georgia and Indiana. ESPN defines the FPI as a forecast of team strength that measures how many points above or below average a team is, with projections built from 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season, results to date and the remaining schedule. Those ratings and projections update daily.
That model projects Miami to finish 10-2 in the regular season, and it gives the Hurricanes heavy win odds in nearly every matchup on the slate. Miami is projected as a significant favorite - meaning better than an 80 percent chance to win - in 10 of its 12 regular-season games. In six of those games, the Hurricanes are above the 90 percent mark.
The season opener at Stanford on Sept. 4 carries a 94.1 percent win probability, followed by a 99.0 percent chance against FAMU on Sept. 10.
ESPN’s model also gives Miami an 88.1 percent edge at Wake Forest on Sept. 18 and another 99.0 percent probability against Central Michigan on Sept. 26.
The first real test in the model comes Oct. 3 at Clemson, where Miami still gets a 67.1 percent win probability. DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Hurricanes as a seven-point favorite in that game. ESPN’s FPI also views the Oct. 17 home game against Florida State as a strong Miami spot, assigning the Hurricanes an 87.7 percent chance to win.
From there, the numbers keep leaning Miami’s way. The Hurricanes are given a 90.4 percent chance against Pittsburgh on Oct. 24, an 85.5 percent chance at North Carolina on Oct. 31, a 92.8 percent chance against Duke on Nov. 14, an 89.2 percent chance against Virginia Tech on Nov. 21 and a 96.8 percent chance against Boston College on Nov. 28.
The toughest assignment on the schedule, by far, is the Nov. 7 trip to Notre Dame. ESPN gives Miami only a 29.4 percent win probability there, and DraftKings has the Hurricanes as a 7.5-point underdog. That is the only game on the schedule in which Miami is not favored by the FPI.
One of the more striking numbers in the model is the Florida State game, where Miami’s 87.7 percent win probability puts the Seminoles in the same neighborhood as several other ACC opponents. ESPN’s view of that matchup reflects how far the two programs have moved in different directions over the past couple of seasons.
The FPI gives Miami an 8.8 percent chance to run the table, ranks the Hurricanes’ schedule as the ninth toughest in the ACC, and puts them at a 50.3 percent chance to win the conference - the highest of any team going into the 2026 season. ESPN also gives Miami a 63.3 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.
In Other News...
Miami May Have Another Freshman Lineman Fans Need To Know
Miamis offensive line has already been a major storyline this offseason, and Ben Congdon is another freshman worth tracking as the Hurricanes sort out how quickly their young talent can help. The four-star recruit arrived with the kind of profile that usually gets attention, but it is the early expectation for significant snaps that makes him stand out even more. He has been working to sharpen his conditioning and round out his skill set, aiming to look ready for a real role right away.
Congdons background in wrestling has helped shape the versatility Miami likes in linemen, and it has aided his push to handle multiple spots up front. He is competing in the same conversation as five-star freshman Jackson Cantwell, which gives the Hurricanes a pair of promising newcomers to watch as the line takes shape. For a team looking for dependable depth and long-term answers, the development of both players could end up mattering a great deal. [Read more 🡒]
Miami Could Land A Pass Rusher That Changes Its Edge Depth
A new opening has emerged for Jack Pyburn after a judge in Louisiana granted a retraining order allowing 16 players to return to college sports this season. Pyburn, who has already played at Florida and LSU and is now in NFL training camp with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, suddenly has the option to weigh a college comeback, and that possibility has naturally put schools with pass-rush needs on alert.
For Miami, the appeal is obvious. The Hurricanes are always looking for more edge depth, and a player with Pyburns background would bring an experienced body into a spot where rotation matters over the course of a season. If he decides to explore the transfer portal, Miami could have a real chance to add a veteran defensive line piece at exactly the moment those kinds of additions tend to matter most. [Read more 🡒]
Miamis Stanford Opener Suddenly Looks Like A Bigger Test
Stanfords quarterback picture got a lot clearer this week, and that matters for Miami as the Hurricanes look ahead to their September 4 meeting. Tavita Pritchard has tabbed Michigan transfer Davis Warren as the Cardinals starter for 2026, giving Stanford a defined option under center before the season even kicks off. Warren is set to make his Stanford debut on August 29 against Hawai'i, then turn around quickly for a trip to face Miami.
For Miami, the news doesnt change the date on the calendar, but it does sharpen the scouting report. Warren brings actual starting experience, having opened nine games for Michigan in 2024 before an ACL injury wiped out his 2025 season and sent him into the transfer portal in January. A quarterback coming off that kind of path adds another layer to a nonconference opener that already had enough intrigue, and it gives the Hurricanes a little more to sort through before the first full weekend of September. [Read more 🡒]