With Selection Sunday just over a month away, the latest Bracketology update has Miami walking the tightrope. As of Tuesday, the Hurricanes are among the last four teams projected into the NCAA Tournament field, according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. And with a pivotal matchup against North Carolina on deck, the stakes couldn’t be higher for Miami’s postseason hopes.
Crunch Time in Coral Gables
Lunardi currently slots Miami as an 11-seed, barely clinging to tournament life and slated for a First Four showdown in Dayton against New Mexico. That game, should it materialize, would be a win-or-go-home scenario - the kind of high-pressure environment that can define a team’s March identity before the main bracket even tips off.
The winner of that First Four matchup would then be headed to Philadelphia to face Arkansas in the opening round. All of this action feeds into the Midwest Regional, which will be hosted in Chicago - a city that holds some recent tournament memories for the Hurricanes.
Familiar Ground, Familiar Foes
Back in 2022, Miami was also placed in the Midwest bracket as a 10-seed and made a deep run, advancing all the way to the Elite Eight before falling to eventual national champion Kansas. That run included a memorable win over Iowa State - a team that, in Lunardi’s latest projection, sits as the 2-seed in the same half of the Midwest bracket as Miami.
It’s not hard to imagine the Hurricanes drawing on that past success as motivation. The potential path ahead - New Mexico, Arkansas, and possibly Iowa State again - offers a compelling mix of redemption and rivalry.
A Loaded Midwest Field
The Midwest is shaping up to be one of the tournament’s most intriguing regions. Michigan State is projected as the 3-seed, lined up to face 14-seed North Dakota State in the first round. But the real eye-catcher might be the potential second-round clash between Michigan State and the winner of a first-round blue-blood battle: 7-seed Kentucky vs. 10-seed UCLA.
Between them, Kentucky and UCLA own 19 national titles - the kind of history that gives any matchup an extra layer of drama, even before the ball is tipped.
At the top of the Midwest bracket, Michigan holds the No. 1 seed, while North Carolina and St. John’s round out the top five seeds in the region. For Miami, who faces UNC on Tuesday night, that game could serve as both a résumé booster and a tone-setter for the stretch run.
Big Picture: ACC in the Mix
The ACC is holding its own in the national landscape, with nine teams projected to make the tournament - trailing only the Big Ten and SEC, which each have 10 in Lunardi’s latest forecast. Duke, projected as the top seed in the East, joins North Carolina and Miami among the ACC’s headliners.
Elsewhere, Arizona is currently pegged as the tournament’s overall No. 1 seed, with Connecticut leading the South and Duke atop the East. Greenville, South Carolina - a city where Miami advanced through the early rounds in 2022 - is hosting subregionals again this year, though Lunardi currently projects that pod as part of the South Region.
What’s at Stake for Miami
Tuesday night’s showdown with North Carolina isn’t just another regular-season game - it’s a potential turning point. For a Miami team trying to avoid the uncertainty of the First Four and punch a more secure ticket to March Madness, a win over the Tar Heels could shift their trajectory in a big way.
The Hurricanes have shown they can make noise in March. But first, they have to get there. And as the bracket starts to take shape, every possession, every game, and every win matters just a little bit more.