Miami’s slide in the College Football Playoff rankings has turned Saturday’s matchup with Duke into more than just another ACC game. After the Hurricanes’ first loss of the season - a defeat to Notre Dame - they dropped from No. 1 to No. 7, and the margin for error is suddenly thin. Another stumble in the regular season would do real damage to Miami’s playoff case, especially with No. 1 receiver Malachi Toney sidelined by an ankle injury until the playoff.
That puts a lot of pressure on Darian Mensah, who is still putting up big numbers even as the spotlight gets harsher. Against Notre Dame, he threw for 276 yards and three touchdowns, but the second-half interception loomed large.
For the season, Mensah has 2,701 passing yards, 28 touchdowns and only two interceptions, yet the loss in his biggest regular-season game hurt his Heisman standing. He had just moved to the top of the Heisman odds last week, and now he may need help from Notre Dame or a couple of rough outings from Carr to get back there.
Duke, though, is not the kind of opponent Miami can treat lightly. The Blue Devils are 7-2, and both of their losses came by one possession.
They also bring one of the better defenses in the country, sitting 18th in adjusted EPA/Play. In the numbers that matter most, Duke ranks 17th in EPA/Pass defense and 10th in EPA/Rush defense, which makes this a tricky assignment for a Miami offense that is already missing Toney.
The Blue Devils have also kept their own passing game alive despite the offseason departure of Mensah, replacing him with Walker Eget and still fielding one of the ACC’s better aerial attacks. Duke ranks 39th in EPA/Pass on offense, and that could matter against a Miami secondary that has been getting picked apart. The Hurricanes are down to 113th in the country in EPA/Pass defense and 103rd in success rate against passing plays.
That’s why laying 13.5 points with Miami feels like a big ask. The Hurricanes are at home, and Mensah gives them the better quarterback, but Duke’s defense has been sturdy all year and the Blue Devils have only been beaten by a combined seven points. There’s also the wrinkle of Mensah’s departure from Duke, and it wouldn’t be a shock if the Blue Devils carried some extra motivation into this one.
Miami has been living on the edge lately, with three of its last four games ending in either a loss or a one-score win. That makes Saturday’s spread hard to swallow, even with the Hurricanes ranked No.
- Duke has the pieces to keep this one tight.
I’m taking the points.
In Other News...
Miami Defense Suddenly Has A New Secondary Concern Before Duke
Miamis defense may have to make a late adjustment in the secondary this week, with safety Zechariah Poyser listed as questionable for the home game against Duke after picking up an upper-body injury last week. Head coach Mario Cristobal said Poyser is doing well, but the Hurricanes still have to treat his availability as uncertain as they get closer to kickoff.
If Poyser cant go, Miami does have backup options lined up to handle the safety spot, which at least gives the staff some flexibility. Still, any uncertainty in the back end is worth watching closely against a Duke offense that will test communication and depth, making Poysers status one of the more important items on the pregame checklist. [Read more 🡒]
Miami Gets An Early Test Of How Real This Start Is
No. 17 Miami gets a chance to keep building early momentum Friday when North Alabama comes to town for a 5 p.m. ET matchup at home. Both teams enter at 2-1, which gives this one a little more substance than the usual November tune-up, especially for a Hurricanes group coming off a win over North Florida and looking to show its start is more than just a fast opening stretch.
North Alabama arrives after a loss to Oklahoma, so the Lions will have their own motivation to steady things against a ranked opponent on the road. The game will air on ACC Network with Mike Corey and Tom Crean on the call, giving Miami another early-season stage to answer the first real question of the year: how much of this start can hold up once the schedule starts to ask more of it? [Read more 🡒]
Jai Lucas Is Still Pushing Miami To Fix Two Things Fast
Miamis 89-51 win over North Florida gave Jai Lucas plenty to like, especially the way his team controlled the glass and dictated the game inside. The Hurricanes were able to lean on their rebounding and paint presence to separate early, but Lucas still came away focused on two areas he wants cleaned up quickly: a tighter rotation and better spacing.
Lewis, the sophomore Lucas has leaned on as a floor general, was part of that conversation even with only two points in the box score. Miami now turns to North Alabama for the first meeting between the programs, and the next step for the Hurricanes will be showing that the same physical edge can come with a sharper, more connected offense. [Read more 🡒]