The top of the 2027 NFL quarterback class has turned into a moving target, and the latest ESPN poll shows just how fast the picture has changed.
Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker now sits in front after collecting 17 of 25 votes from scouts and executives as the quarterback most likely to go first in the draft. That total is the highest for any player in the three years of the survey, and it marks a stunning flip from August, when Mestemaker got no votes at all.
Notre Dame’s CJ Carr came in second with four votes, while Miami’s Darian Mensah picked up three. Oregon’s Dante Moore, who had been the preseason favorite with 14 votes in August, got one. Texas’ Arch Manning, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and LSU’s Sam Leavitt all had support earlier in the year, but none of them received a vote this time.
Mestemaker’s climb has been fueled by a big season and one signature performance that made people pay attention. The 6-foot-4, 211-pound redshirt sophomore followed coach Eric Morris from North Texas after leading the FBS in passing yards in 2025, and he took another major step forward on Sept. 12 against Oregon.
In that 39-31 upset of the then-No. 6 Ducks, he threw for 317 yards, two touchdowns and added a 75-yard rushing score.
Through seven games this season, Mestemaker has 2,326 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and six interceptions. He is still viewed as relatively inexperienced, with a projection to finish the year with about 27 career starts.
Mensah’s case looks different, but it is just as strong in its own way. He has completed 81.4% of his passes, hitting 166 of 204 attempts for 2,151 yards, 22 touchdowns and just one interception while guiding the No.
1 Hurricanes to a 7-0 start. His completion percentage leads the FBS and is on pace to challenge the single-season record.
He is averaging 307.3 yards per game and owns a 204.55 passer rating.
That kind of efficiency, paired with Miami’s success, has clearly caught the eye of evaluators. If the Hurricanes keep rolling deep into the playoff, Mensah’s stock could keep climbing as draft season gets closer.
Carr has also stayed firmly in the conversation. The junior has completed 66.8% of his passes for 1,639 yards, 16 touchdowns and one interception through seven games, while posting an average depth of target of 10.3 yards and keeping mistakes to a minimum. Scouts still have a chance to see more from him against ranked opponents, and the home game against Miami stands out as another key checkpoint.
Moore’s situation changed the board in a hurry. After leading the August poll, he suffered a season-ending concussion on an illegal hit at USC on Sept.
- That injury took one of the class’s most experienced and highly regarded passers out of the rest of the on-field evaluation this season and altered the outlook for teams that had seen him as a potential top-10 pick.
Manning’s fall in the poll was just as notable. He had seven votes in August but none in the midseason update after dealing with accuracy problems, turnovers and uneven protection. His talent and background still matter, but his decision-making and production under pressure have not matched the preseason buzz.
Sellers and Leavitt remain in the mix, but neither has separated from the pack in the first half of the season. Cincinnati and Texas Tech transfer Brendan Sorsby is still being mentioned by some scouts as a possible first-round name, even after acknowledging past sports betting activity.
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