Why the Raiders Should Think Twice Before Targeting Tua Tagovailoa This Offseason
The Las Vegas Raiders are heading into yet another offseason with a familiar question looming over the franchise: Who’s going to be under center next year? After a rocky season that saw the Geno Smith experiment fall flat, it’s clear the Raiders will be in the quarterback market-again.
Whether that answer comes via the 2026 NFL Draft or elsewhere, the front office needs to tread carefully. And while Tua Tagovailoa’s name is about to be thrown around a lot, Las Vegas would be wise to steer clear.
Tua on the Move?
According to reports, the Miami Dolphins are making a significant shift at quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa, a former top-five pick and Pro Bowler, is being benched in favor of rookie Quinn Ewers, with Zach Wilson stepping in as the backup. That’s a major shake-up, and it signals that Miami may be ready to move on from Tagovailoa altogether this offseason.
Now, when a quarterback with Tua’s résumé hits the market, there’s always going to be interest. He’s led a team to the playoffs, he’s been to a Pro Bowl, and he’s had stretches of high-level play. But for a team like the Raiders-who’ve been burned by veteran stopgaps time and time again-this is a situation where the name recognition shouldn’t outweigh the red flags.
The Temptation of a Bargain
Let’s talk numbers. If the Dolphins cut Tagovailoa, they’ll be on the hook for the remainder of his contract.
That means any team picking him up could do so for a veteran minimum deal-roughly $1.2 million. That’s a bargain-bin price for a starting quarterback, and on paper, it’s an enticing proposition.
But this is where the Raiders have to be smarter than they’ve been in the past. Tua’s production this season has been shaky at best.
He’s thrown 15 interceptions in 14 games-more than any other quarterback in the league. That’s not just a slump; that’s a trend.
And it’s not the kind of trend you want to import into a franchise trying to turn the corner.
A Different Player Than He Once Was
Tagovailoa’s game has changed-whether due to injuries, confidence, or scheme fit, he’s not the same quarterback who once dazzled with his pocket presence and quick release. He’s not scrambling as much.
He’s not making the gutsy, off-script plays that once made him so dynamic. And while that might be understandable given his injury history, it also makes him a tough sell as a long-term solution.
This isn’t just about stats-it’s about how he plays the position now. The Raiders have tried the “veteran reclamation project” route before.
Jimmy Garoppolo. Gardner Minshew.
Geno Smith. None of them moved the needle.
Tua, at this stage in his career, feels like more of the same.
The Trade Route? Even Riskier
Some have floated the idea of a trade, where the Dolphins might even attach draft picks just to offload Tagovailoa’s deal. That kind of NBA-style move is rare in the NFL, but not impossible. It’s certainly intriguing from a draft capital standpoint-especially in a 2026 class that’s expected to be deep at several key positions.
But even then, the Raiders would be taking on a quarterback who hasn’t shown he can elevate a team-and they’d be giving up precious draft flexibility in the process. That’s a tough pill to swallow for a team still trying to build a sustainable foundation.
Locker Room Fit Matters, Too
Beyond the field, there’s also the question of leadership and locker room presence. Tua’s had moments where he’s rubbed teammates and media the wrong way, including publicly calling out others during tough stretches. For a Raiders team that’s constantly fighting the perception of dysfunction, that’s not the kind of energy you want from your quarterback.
Las Vegas doesn’t need a Ringmaster at quarterback-they need a stabilizer. Someone who can lead, grow with the team, and help establish a new culture. That’s not a role Tagovailoa has consistently filled in Miami.
Time to Break the Cycle
The Raiders have spent the last few years chasing short-term fixes at quarterback, hoping one of them might magically solve the franchise’s deeper issues. But the truth is, those Band-Aid solutions haven’t worked. It’s time to break that cycle.
If Las Vegas wants to look toward Miami for quarterback help, they’d be better off focusing on the NFL Draft. There’s talent to be had-young, moldable, long-term talent. And in a league where quarterback success is increasingly tied to development and fit, that’s the smarter play.
Tagovailoa may find a second act elsewhere-and maybe even thrive in the right situation. But for the Raiders, who need more than just a name, this isn’t the right fit. It’s time to aim higher, think longer-term, and finally commit to building something sustainable under center.