Zach Lowe is not forecasting a Miami Heat breakout so much as a very solid team with a pretty defined ceiling.
On his read, the Heat land in that 46-to-50-win lane, and he made it clear he’d be surprised if they drifted outside it in either direction. That’s high praise in one sense - he called Miami “a very good team” - but it also stops short of the kind of leap that changes the conversation at the top of the league. Lowe’s confidence starts with Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has already flashed in limited preseason action, and then quickly runs into one nagging concern.
“The lack of pull up, off the dribble shooting is a little bit worrisome,” said Lowe.
That’s the heart of the issue. Miami has no shortage of shooters on paper.
Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr. give the Heat real firepower from deep, and the numbers from last season back that up. Hardaway hit 224 threes and shot 40.7 percent from long range during the 2025-26 regular season.
Thompson added 202 makes at 38.3 percent. Together, that’s 426 made threes before either player started this season in Miami.
But Lowe’s point goes beyond simply asking whether the Heat can shoot it. Catch-and-shoot accuracy is one thing.
Creating a good look when the defense is set and the first pass doesn’t open anything is another. Miami can have dependable perimeter scorers and still have questions about how those scorers get their shots.
That distinction is what makes the offense more complicated than a quick glance at the box score.
For Erik Spoelstra, the task is fitting those pieces around Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo. Miami can certainly look dangerous if the ball is moving and defenses are scrambling. The harder test comes when the opponent takes away the easy stuff and forces the Heat to manufacture something more difficult.
There is reason to think the pace of play could help. Transition made up 24.9 percent of Miami’s possessions in the 2025-26 season, and Antetokounmpo has been a machine in that setting over time, averaging 1.21 points per transition possession over the previous five years.
The rest of the league sat at 1.13 in that span. That kind of edge matters because it can keep Miami out of stagnant half-court possessions, where self-created jumpers become more important.
The preseason opener offered a glimpse of how that might look. In the Oct. 3 win over Toronto, Antetokounmpo had nine points and seven assists in 14 minutes, going 3-for-3 from the field.
Hardaway scored 14 points and went 4-for-4, including three made threes, while Andrew Wiggins knocked down four threes. Miami rolled 129-105, with Toronto missing Kawhi Leonard.
It was only an exhibition, and the matchup context matters. Still, it showed Antetokounmpo influencing the offense without needing a heavy shot volume, while teammates cashed in around him. Spoelstra’s reaction centered on the passing, and Heat Nation reported that the coach brought up Magic Johnson when talking about Antetokounmpo’s size, vision and ability to deliver the ball to shooters.
That’s the pathway for Miami: Antetokounmpo doesn’t have to create every good shot himself, but he can create the first problem for a defense. The Heat then need the rest of the offense to keep that advantage alive instead of letting it die at the first contest.
Lowe has already poked at the bigger structural question, too - how Antetokounmpo and Adebayo function together. In the Oct. 8 episode transcript of “The Zach Lowe Show,” he focused on Antetokounmpo’s health and how Adebayo would look when his new teammate handled the ball.
Not everyone came away skeptical. Guest Nekias Duncan saw promise in the early blend of drives, cuts and perimeter chances, and also pointed to the defensive versatility of the frontcourt pairing.
Lowe, for his part, liked what he saw enough to mention the possibility of two-man actions between them.
Spoelstra has described the setup as one that spreads the playmaking around. In Heat Nation’s Sept. 30 coverage of Miami’s adjustment process, he laid out a vision with Adebayo initiating possessions while Antetokounmpo cuts or works off the ball.
“It’s about playmaking, it’s about cutting, it’s about Giannis sometimes playing off the ball and Bam making the play,” Spoelstra said.
That idea gives Miami more than one way to launch an attack, and it keeps Adebayo from being reduced to a spacer while Antetokounmpo does all the heavy lifting. It also means the Heat are trying to build an offense that connects multiple creators rather than asking one star to solve everything.
The learning curve is real. Antetokounmpo admitted in camp that unfamiliar movement from teammates led him to throw a pass out of bounds. Those are the kinds of small mistakes that have to get cleaned up before the bigger vision becomes dependable.
So Lowe’s stance lands in a useful middle ground. He sees a good team, maybe a very good one. He just doesn’t see a finished product yet, and the reason is pretty clear: Miami still has to prove that its shooting works not just in the catch-and-shoot moments, but in the messier possessions where the first look disappears.
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