With the NBA talking more seriously about expansion, the Miami Heat can already start gaming out a protection list.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reported Tuesday afternoon that commissioner Adam Silver spoke to the NBA Board of Governors at their annual meetings and said the league could be adding teams as soon as 2028. That may still be a couple of years away, but it’s enough to make this a worthwhile thought exercise: if an expansion draft happened today, who would Miami keep?
The last time the NBA went through this process was in 2004, when the Charlotte Bobcats entered the league. Back then, teams were allowed to protect up to eight players, and that’s the framework being used here.
At the top of Miami’s list, the choices are easy. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo are the franchise cornerstones, and there’s no realistic world where the Heat would leave either exposed.
Antetokounmpo is the shiny new addition, while Adebayo remains the All-Star center and one of the faces of the team. Both are expensive, but the talent level makes the decision straightforward.
Antetokounmpo is also expected to sign an extension in 2027.
Pelle Larsson would be next. The Heat’s second-round pick in 2024 has taken steps forward every season and gives Miami a low-cost option with room to grow. He’s due for an extension soon, but in this exercise he feels like a clear keeper.
Andrew Wiggins is another simple call. He recently signed an extension and fits as a strong third option for the roster, making him an obvious name to protect as well.
From there, the list gets murkier, mostly because Miami spent much of the offseason filling out the roster with veterans on short-term deals. Klay Thompson makes the cut because of the two-year contract, his playoff résumé and the fact that he still has something left as a three-point shooter despite his age. Davion Mitchell also belongs on the protected list as the team’s starting point guard and, over the past season and a half, one of the more overlooked contributors on the roster.
The final two protected spots go to Bobby Portis and rookie Ryan Conwell. Portis arrived as the second piece of the blockbuster deal that brought in Antetokounmpo, and he stands out as one of the better backup bigs in the league.
With Antetokounmpo having dealt with injuries last season, Miami would want the insurance. Conwell, 22, is the Heat’s lone draft pick and has drawn plenty of buzz this offseason.
Even with Miami light on young talent, protecting its youngest player with upside makes sense.
That leaves Nikola Jovic, Nick Richards, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Simone Fontecchio on the outside looking in. Jovic is entering the first year of a new deal that pays him $16 million annually, and the Heat would likely be fine if an expansion team took that salary off their books. Richards, Hardaway and Fontecchio are all on one-year contracts and, while useful rotation players, don’t appear to be part of Miami’s long-term plans.
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