The Miami Heat are only six games into the season, but the early picture is clear enough: at 2-4, they need to make a couple of adjustments.
The first is pace. Miami has leaned into the fastest style in the league so far, posting a 25 percent transition frequency, but the results haven’t matched the tempo.
The Heat are scoring just 0.98 points per possession in those situations, and the downside goes beyond the numbers. Playing that fast has been wearing them down, which makes it tougher to defend when the game tightens up.
They were only average in transition last season, too.
That doesn’t mean the Heat need to crawl. It just means they should settle somewhere closer to the middle instead of living at the extreme end of the speed spectrum.
That would also fit better with an offense that has used very few screens. This season, the ball handler is running only 7.2 screen rolls per game, even with a bump over the last two games.
Using more screens has already shown why it can help. It gives shooters more room to separate and keeps the attack from becoming too dependent on drive-and-kick action.
It also helps disguise the main threat, since defenders naturally lock in on the ball or the player curling around the action. The source material even points to how dangerous that could look with Giannis Antetokounmpo as the target after a stagger or in a horns set.
There’s still a place for the open floor, of course. The appeal of using Antetokounmpo in sixth gear is obvious. A middle-ground approach, such as inverted screen rolls or big-to-big action with Bam Adebayo, would be a workable compromise.
The second change is in the starting lineup, where Pelle Larsson should replace Klay Thompson. The numbers make the case.
Miami’s defensive rating with Thompson and the main four has been a rough 130.6, while the group with Larsson in that spot has posted a 93.3. Larsson simply brings more quickness and activity on that end, and that matters when the team is setting the tone.
He also adds another on-ball connector to the rotation, which could ease some of the burden on Davion Mitchell and Antetokounmpo. It’s early, but the Swede is averaging four assists against one turnover per game. His 3-point volume is still modest at 2.5 attempts per game, yet he’s hitting 40 percent of them, which leaves room for optimism that he can keep the efficiency while taking on a little more volume.
Moving Thompson to the bench wouldn’t erase his value. His shooting would still matter for the team. But if the Heat want the quickest route back to their defensive identity, the answer is to lean into what has already worked.
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Los Angeles is also dealing with the second night of a back-to-back, which adds another layer to a game already loaded with attention because of the high-end talent on both sides. The piece points to the individual battles that tend to decide these marquee nights, and for Miami, this is the sort of test that can either validate the recent momentum or expose how far the team still has to go. [Read more 🡒]