The Las Vegas Raiders are once again hitting the reset button-and this time, they’re doing it with purpose.
With Klint Kubiak stepping in as head coach and the expectation that Indiana standout Fernando Mendoza will be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, the Raiders are making it clear: the franchise is ready to build around a new face of the future. Mendoza is widely expected to be the Week 1 starter, ushering in a new era in Vegas.
But with that shift comes a big question mark: what happens to Geno Smith?
Smith, the team’s starter in 2025, struggled mightily last season. His future with the team is uncertain, and with Pete Carroll-the architect behind Smith’s acquisition-no longer in the building, the odds of Smith sticking around are slim. A trade might be the first option on the table, but considering the size of his contract and his on-field performance, a release feels increasingly likely.
Smith is sitting on a $75 million deal, and while cutting him would leave the Raiders with an $18.5 million dead-cap hit, they’d still save $8 million in the process. For a team with $91.5 million in cap space this offseason, that dead money is manageable. In other words, if Las Vegas wants to move on, they can-and likely will.
The numbers from Smith’s 2025 campaign don’t do him any favors. He threw 19 touchdowns against a league-high 17 interceptions, took 55 sacks, and posted a passer rating of 84.7.
That stat line paints a clear picture: things didn’t go well. Whether it was decision-making, pocket presence, or just flat-out execution, Smith looked like a quarterback out of rhythm all season long.
That said, context matters-and Smith wasn’t the only problem in Vegas.
Chip Kelly’s offense was chaotic at best, and the supporting cast didn’t do much to help. The offensive line was leaky, the receiving corps lacked consistency, and the overall scheme failed to maximize the talent on the field.
So while Smith’s numbers were ugly, it wasn’t all on him. He was operating in a broken system.
Now, if Smith is released, there are a couple of teams that could come calling.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are one. With Aaron Rodgers’ future still in limbo, Pittsburgh may be in the market for a veteran quarterback to bridge the gap.
Will Howard and Mason Rudolph are in the mix, but neither has locked down the job. Smith could offer a steady-if unspectacular-option while the Steelers search for their long-term answer.
The Minnesota Vikings are another possible landing spot. J.J.
McCarthy has shown flashes, but he didn’t do enough last season to solidify his role as the franchise guy. Minnesota could use a veteran presence to either push McCarthy or take over if needed.
And with Kevin O’Connell’s track record of getting the most out of quarterbacks, the Vikings might be one of the few places where a Smith resurgence isn’t out of the question.
Let’s not forget: Smith wasn’t always this version of himself. During his time in Seattle, he won 28 games over five seasons and helped guide the Seahawks to the playoffs. In the right environment, with the right coaching and personnel, he’s shown he can be effective.
Minnesota offers a much more stable offensive situation than what Smith had in Vegas. And if O’Connell can tap into the version of Smith we saw in Seattle, the Vikings could find themselves right back in the playoff mix.
As for the Steelers, Mike McCarthy has a reputation for working well with quarterbacks. Smith wouldn’t be Rodgers-few are-but he could be serviceable enough to keep the team competitive while they plan for the future.
Bottom line: Geno Smith’s time with the Raiders is likely coming to an end. But his story in the NFL might not be finished just yet. In the right spot, with the right support, there’s still a chance he can write a new chapter.