As we roll into Week 15 of the NFL season, the playoff picture is finally coming into focus-but there’s still plenty of chaos left to unfold. With just four weeks remaining, teams across both conferences are jockeying for position, trying to lock in playoff berths, home-field advantage, or just keep their postseason hopes alive. Let’s break down where things stand in the AFC and NFC, who can clinch, who’s on the brink, and how the Miami Dolphins-yes, those same Dolphins who started 1-6-are still hanging around with a puncher’s chance.
AFC Playoff Picture: The Heavy Hitters and the Hustlers
Top Seeds (1-7): 1.
Denver Broncos (12-2) - AFC West leader ✅ 2.
New England Patriots (11-3) - AFC East leader 3.
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) - AFC South leader 4.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) - AFC North leader 5.
Los Angeles Chargers (10-4) - Wild Card 1 6.
Buffalo Bills (10-4) - Wild Card 2 7.
Houston Texans (9-5) - Wild Card 3
In the Hunt:
- Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
- Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
- Miami Dolphins (6-7)
Eliminated:
- Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-10)
- New York Jets (3-11)
- Cleveland Browns (3-11)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)
- Tennessee Titans (2-12)
The AFC is top-heavy, with Denver and New England leading the charge. The Broncos have already clinched a playoff berth and are eyeing home-field advantage. The Patriots, meanwhile, can lock up the AFC East with a win this week, which would also snap Buffalo’s five-year grip on the division.
The Wild Card race is tight, with the Chargers, Bills, and Texans holding the current spots-but the Colts, Ravens, and even the Dolphins aren’t out of it yet.
AFC Clinching Scenarios
Denver Broncos - Already in. They can lock up more favorable seeding with any combination of a win, tie, or losses by other contenders like the Chargers, Jaguars, Texans, or Colts.
New England Patriots - Can’t clinch a playoff berth outright this week without help, but they can clinch the division with a win. A win also gets them into the postseason regardless of what else happens.
AFC Elimination Watch
Cincinnati Bengals - Already eliminated. A loss or a Steelers win this week will officially close the book on their 2025 season.
Miami Dolphins - Still alive, but barely. The scenarios that eliminate Miami are complicated, but they boil down to this: if the Dolphins lose and a few other contenders win, they’re out. A win on Monday Night Football is essential to keep the dream alive.
NFC Playoff Picture: A Stack of Contenders
Top Seeds (1-7): 1.
Los Angeles Rams (11-3) - NFC West leader ✅ 2.
Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) - NFC North leader 3.
Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) - NFC East leader 4.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) - NFC South leader 5.
Seattle Seahawks (11-3) - Wild Card 1 6.
San Francisco 49ers (10-4) - Wild Card 2 7.
Chicago Bears (10-4) - Wild Card 3
In the Hunt:
- Detroit Lions (8-6)
- Carolina Panthers (7-7)
- Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)
Eliminated:
- Minnesota Vikings (5-8)
- Atlanta Falcons (5-9)
- New Orleans Saints (4-10)
- Washington Commanders (4-10)
- Arizona Cardinals (3-11)
- New York Giants (2-12)
The NFC playoff race is a logjam, especially in the Wild Card spots. The Rams have already punched their ticket, while the Packers, Eagles, and Bucs are trying to hold onto their division leads. The Seahawks, 49ers, and Bears are all in strong Wild Card positions, but one stumble could open the door for Detroit or even Carolina.
NFC Clinching and Elimination Notes
Los Angeles Rams - Clinched. They’re now playing for seeding and potentially the No. 1 overall spot in the NFC.
Minnesota Vikings - Eliminated. Any combination of a loss or wins by the Bears or Lions seals their fate.
Miami Dolphins Week 15 Rooting Guide: Who Fins Fans Should Be Cheering For
Let’s be honest: Miami’s path to the playoffs is narrow, but not impossible. The Dolphins need to win out, and they need a lot of help. Here’s how fans should be scoreboard-watching this week:
Dolphins at Steelers (MNF)
This is the big one.
Miami must win. No ifs, ands, or buts.
A loss here, and the playoff math gets grim real fast.
Root for: Dolphins
Ravens at Bengals
This one’s a bit of a chess match.
If Miami beats Pittsburgh, that opens the door for Baltimore to take the AFC North. That’s actually good news for the Dolphins, who would hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Steelers.
Baltimore already beat Miami, so they own that tiebreaker-but if the Ravens win the division and the Steelers fall into the Wild Card race, Miami’s path clears up a bit.
Root for: Ravens (but it’s close)
Cardinals at Texans
Straightforward.
The Texans are ahead of Miami in the Wild Card race. The Cardinals are in the NFC and have nothing to do with this.
Root for: Cardinals
Jets at Jaguars
The Jaguars are the current AFC South leaders.
If they get caught by the Colts or Texans, it could reshuffle the Wild Card race in Miami’s favor. A Jags loss would help keep that door open.
Root for: Jets
Chargers at Chiefs
Here’s a twist: while it might seem logical to root for the Chargers to lose, Miami actually benefits more if the Chiefs drop further behind in the standings.
The Chargers are likely out of reach unless they collapse entirely, so pushing Kansas City further down helps the Dolphins’ positioning.
Root for: Chargers
Bills at Patriots
This one’s huge.
A Patriots win does two things: it helps Miami in the AFC East race and knocks the Bills down a peg in the Wild Card standings. That’s a double win for Dolphins fans.
Root for: Patriots
Packers at Broncos
No direct playoff implications here for Miami, but if you’re already rooting for New England in the AFC East, keeping Denver atop the AFC helps prevent a logjam of contenders just behind them.
Root for: Broncos
Colts at Seahawks
The Colts are right in Miami’s way-and they already beat the Dolphins head-to-head.
That matters. With Philip Rivers stepping in due to injuries, a late-season collapse from Indy would be a gift.
Root for: Seahawks
Final Word
With four weeks to go, the playoff picture is still a living, breathing thing-and for teams like the Dolphins, every game, every down, and every result matters. They’ve already pulled off a midseason turnaround that few saw coming. Now, they’re hoping to complete the story with a playoff berth that once seemed impossible.
It’s going to take wins, help, and a little bit of magic-but hey, it’s December football. Stranger things have happened.