The Miami Dolphins are staring at a long season, and the win total market is treating them that way.
Their number is set at 4.5, with the under priced at -146. That comes out to a 59.35% implied chance that Miami finishes 4-13 or worse. Only the Arizona Cardinals sit lower, at 3.5, though the case here is that Miami may end up with the NFL’s worst record.
That’s the reality of a roster that has been stripped down and reshaped. The Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel era is gone; Tagovailoa is now in Atlanta, McDaniel is the offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Chargers, and Jeff Hafley has stepped in as head coach. The turnover has been significant, and the result is a team that looks light on difference-makers.
The Dolphins’ current offensive picture tells the story. Malik Willis is at quarterback, De'Von Achane is the running back who stands out, and Malik Washington is being labeled their best receiver.
There just isn’t much proven firepower there, and the defense may be even shakier. By this view, it could wind up as the worst unit in the entire league.
Schedule only makes things tougher. Miami is facing the second-hardest slate in the NFL based on opponents’ projected win totals, so even an efficient season from what’s left of the roster may not translate into many victories. Add in the AFC East, with the Buffalo Bills and the defending AFC champions, the New England Patriots, and the path gets even narrower.
The question is whether Willis can blow past expectations at quarterback. If he doesn’t, it’s hard to see Miami getting to five wins. That’s why the under is the play on this total.
In Other News...
Malik Willis Is Giving Dolphins Fans A Real QB Debate
Malik Willis first start for the Dolphins offered a reminder that the conversation around Miamis quarterback room is no longer just about depth or development. After a slow offseason, he bounced back with a touchdown drive in his debut, and the way he handled the moment matched what he flashed during a strong training camp. For a fan base that has been looking for more than just a backup storyline, that was enough to turn a routine preseason-type evaluation into something a little more serious.
What makes the situation especially interesting is the ripple effect it could have beyond this season. Willis play has already fueled speculation about whether he can grow into something more than a short-term option, and Miamis long-term planning could eventually reflect that if he keeps trending upward. The bigger question is whether the Dolphins approach to the quarterback position in 2027 starts to look very different depending on what he does over the coming months. [Read more 🡒]
Dolphins Get A Rookie Boost But One Question Still Looms
The Dolphins got a small but meaningful lift this week with the activation of rookie wide receiver Chris Bell from the non-football injury list, adding another young piece to an offense that already had plenty of reasons to be watched closely. Bell is coming back from the season-ending knee injury he suffered in college, and Miami views his return as a welcome boost to its group of weapons as camp moves toward the regular season.
Bells presence now gives the Dolphins a better chance to sort through their receiver depth with more options on the field, which is especially useful as the opener approaches. The next question is less about whether Miami wants him available and more about how quickly he can put himself in position to help when the team lines up for the start of the season. [Read more 🡒]
Chris Bell Gives Dolphins Receiving Battle Real Intrigue Again
The Dolphins receiving group got a little more interesting this week with rookie wideout Chris Bell coming off the Non-Football Injury list as he keeps working back from the torn ACL he suffered before training camp. Bells return to the practice mix gives Miami another young option to evaluate as the preseason schedule approaches, and it adds a little more shape to a competition that had already been drawing attention around the roster.
Jeff Hafley and Bobby Slowik have both pointed to Bells progress while also stressing patience, which makes sense given how much time he has missed and how careful the team needs to be about avoiding a setback. Even so, the fact that he is now positioned to be available for the preseason and possibly the regular-season opener gives the Dolphins one more name to watch in a receiver battle that suddenly feels a lot less straightforward. [Read more 🡒]