Yes, the 5-7 Dolphins Still Have a Shot at the Playoffs - Here's How It Could Happen
Let’s be honest: the Miami Dolphins’ playoff hopes are hanging by a thread. But in the NFL, a thread is all you need.
After starting the season 1-6 and watching their quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, lead the league in interceptions, it looked like Miami’s season was headed straight for the draft board. Add in Tyreek Hill dislocating his knee and a blowout loss to the Browns, and things were bleak in South Florida. But somehow, here we are in December, and the Dolphins are back in the playoff conversation - albeit barely.
Thanks to a late-season surge powered by rookie running back De’Von Achane’s breakout performances and a defense that’s finally found its footing, Miami has won four of its last five games. That includes a win over the Jets, the same team they’re facing again today.
Momentum? They’ve got some.
A real shot? That’s where things get tricky.
The Math Isn’t Pretty, But It’s Not Zero
With five weeks left in the regular season, the Dolphins are three games out of the final AFC wild-card spot. That’s a steep hill to climb, especially when you're chasing teams like the Texans, Ravens, Steelers, and yes, the Kansas City Chiefs.
According to projections from NFL.com and The Athletic, Miami’s playoff chances sit below 1%. Even if they win out, their odds only climb to about 14%.
But if you're a Dolphins fan, you’ll take any number that isn’t absolute zero. And for what it’s worth, they’ve made it back onto the “In the Hunt” graphic - and that’s not nothing.
The Schedule Tightens - But There’s a Path
After today’s rematch with the Jets, things get significantly tougher. Miami’s final four games include matchups with three division leaders.
According to Tankathon, the Dolphins face the 14th-toughest remaining schedule based on opponent win percentage (.508). It’s not a gauntlet, but it’s not a cakewalk either.
Still, if they can stay alive until Week 18, there’s a potential silver lining: they close the season against the Patriots, a team that might be resting starters by then. That’s a big “if,” but in December football, hope is a currency - and Miami’s still got some in the bank.
Who Dolphins Fans Should Be Rooting For This Weekend
Let’s break down the scoreboard-watching guide for Dolphins fans. If Miami’s going to pull off a miracle run, they’ll need some help - and here’s where it could come from:
Steelers vs. Ravens: Root for Baltimore
Both teams are 6-6 and tied atop the AFC North. Miami already lost to the Ravens back on October 30, so the best-case scenario is for Baltimore to win the division and push Pittsburgh into wild-card territory - where Miami can potentially knock them off head-to-head next Monday night.
Colts vs. Jaguars: Root for Indianapolis
The Colts and Jaguars are knotted at 8-4 in the AFC South. Miami dropped its season opener to Indy, so it would help to see the Colts rise to the top of the division - and out of the wild-card race. A road win over Jacksonville would do just that.
Bengals vs. Bills: Root for Cincinnati
This one’s a little complicated. The Bengals are 4-8 and technically in the same long-shot playoff boat as the Dolphins.
But Miami has a one-game edge and a head-to-head matchup with Cincinnati looming in Week 16. Meanwhile, the Bills are 8-4 and firmly ahead in the wild-card race.
A Buffalo loss helps Miami more in the short term.
Texans vs. Chiefs: Root for Kansas City
This is a tough call. Miami trails Houston by two games and Kansas City by just one.
But the numbers say it’s more realistic to catch the Texans. So as painful as it might be to root for the defending champs, Dolphins fans should be pulling for the Chiefs to take this one.
Eagles vs. Chargers: Root for Philly
The Chargers are three games up on Miami and already own a head-to-head win from October 12. It’s a long shot to catch them, but stranger things have happened. A Philly win would at least keep the door cracked open.
Final Word: It's a Long Shot, But the Dolphins Aren’t Dead Yet
Let’s not sugarcoat it - the Dolphins need a lot to go right. They need to keep winning, they need help from around the league, and they need a little luck. But in a season that looked over before Halloween, the fact that they’re even in the conversation in December is a testament to how quickly things can turn in the NFL.
So yes, the odds are slim. But if you’re a Dolphins fan, you’re watching the scoreboard, you’re doing the math, and you’re still hoping. And in this league, that’s all you need.