The Patriots head to Miami on Sunday afternoon trying to put last week’s loss behind them and get back on track against a Dolphins team that finally found the win column.
New England’s three-game winning streak ended in Chicago, where the Patriots dropped a 30-24 decision on Thursday Night Football. Miami, meanwhile, went on the road and knocked off the Jets for its first victory of the season.
These teams already know each other well from last year, when the Patriots swept the season series. New England won 33-27 in September and then rolled 38-10 in January.
The betting market has nudged toward New England since opening. The Patriots started as 7.5-point favorites and are now laying 7, while the total has dipped from 44.5 to 43.5.
One bettor who likes the matchup for New England is SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan, who laid out his view in his Road to 272 Bets column. MacMillan wrote:
“I was in on the Dolphins last week, but that was a one-week venture. I'll take my winnings and go home by betting against them a week later. Miami can cover as underdogs against fellow bad teams, but they don't have the skill or talent to hang with playoff-caliber teams, which the Patriots certainly are.
Drake Maye and the Patriots' passing offense have been better than people are giving them credit for. They rank fifth in the league in dropback EPA and second in dropback success rate. That's good enough to torch a bad Dolphins defense.
The Patriots had an extra few days of rest after falling in Chicago on Thursday Night Football. They’re now just 1-3 on the road this season, which is a bit worrisome, but they were underdogs in all four of those games.
Meanwhile, Miami is still 0-2 at home, failing to cover against the Chiefs or Bengals in those two losses.
I’ll take the Patriots as touchdown favorites in Miami.”
For this Week 8 matchup, the lean is New England to cover the touchdown spread.
In Other News...
Dolphins O-Line Momentum Suddenly Hinges On A New Concern Up Front
Miamis offensive line has spent much of the season trying to find some stability, and the guard play has been a big reason the Dolphins have been able to lean on the run game. Kadyn Proctor and Jonah Savaiinaea have both logged heavy snap counts, and even with penalties and PFF grades that have dipped below league average at times, their presence has helped keep the interior moving in the right direction. Savaiinaeas return from an ankle injury has been especially important after the line had to absorb some early-season shuffling.
Now the momentum up front faces a fresh test with Proctor unavailable for Week 8 because of a concussion. For a unit that has already had to manage injuries while trying to build chemistry, losing one of its most-used guards adds another layer of uncertainty at exactly the wrong time. Miami has gotten enough from the pair to matter in the rushing attack, but the next stretch will show whether that progress can hold if the lineup has to change again. [Read more 🡒]
Malik Willis Forced A Tough Dolphins Sideline Conversation After Costly Mistake
A promising third-down sequence against New England took a sharp turn for Miami after Ollie Gordon II was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct following a short run, turning a manageable spot into a much tougher one for the offense. In the heat of the moment, Malik Willis made sure the message was heard on the sideline, confronting Gordon about the mistake and stressing the kind of accountability that can keep a drive from slipping away.
Willis did not leave it there, though. Even while calling out the error, he backed Gordon as a teammate and made clear the issue was about cleaning up the details, not creating a divide, which is the sort of exchange that can matter in a tight game and, just as importantly, in a locker room trying to stay connected as the season moves on. [Read more 🡒]
Dolphins Let Another Sloppy Patriots Loss Spiral In The Second Half
A wet, sloppy Week 8 loss in New England left the Dolphins staring at another game that got away in the second half, this one a 24-19 defeat that pushed the Patriots to their fifth win of the season. Miami had to navigate a Patriots offense missing A.J. Brown and TreVeyon Henderson, but the bigger issue was how quickly the game tilted once the conditions and the pressure started to pile up.
Drake Maye made the most of a clean, efficient day, going 16 of 20 for 207 yards and three touchdowns while the Patriots kept Miami under constant stress up front. The Patriots also lost tight end Hunter Henry to a foot injury and never got him back, but their defense still found enough disruption to keep the Dolphins from turning the game into a late comeback. [Read more 🡒]