The Miami Dolphins are staring down one of the most pivotal quarterback decisions in franchise history - and it’s going to cost them, no matter what they choose. Tua Tagovailoa, once seen as the future of the team, now sits at the center of a massive financial and football crossroads.
The numbers are eye-popping: $99 million in dead cap over the next two seasons if the Dolphins decide to move on. But the conversation in Miami is shifting from “Can we afford to?”
to “Can we afford not to?”
Let’s be clear: this isn’t just about money. It’s about fit, direction, and belief.
New head coach Jeff Hafley and general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan have kept things vague when asked about Tua’s future, but the writing on the wall is becoming harder to ignore. When a quarterback is benched with three games left in a playoff push - and no injury in sight - it says a lot.
When that same quarterback is carrying a $56 million cap hit in 2026, it says even more.
Tua’s contract is structured in a way that makes any move painful. Releasing him outright would trigger an additional $11 million cap charge, and the total dead money would climb to a staggering $99.2 million.
That’s the kind of financial hit that usually gets front-office folks fired - unless they’re convinced it’s the only way forward. The Dolphins would have to use a post-June 1 designation just to spread the pain over two seasons.
But here’s the thing: this isn’t just about a bad contract. It’s about a quarterback who, after being benched late last season, didn’t exactly inspire confidence in how he handled the situation.
The team, the locker room, and the fanbase all felt the shift. What was once a hopeful storyline - the comeback kid, the accurate lefty, the leader of a high-octane offense - has turned into a question mark the size of Hard Rock Stadium.
Joel Corry, a former agent and current cap expert, recently listed 15 players who could be traded or released before the 2026 season. Tagovailoa was right at the top. That’s not just speculation - it’s a reflection of how far things have shifted in Miami.
The Dolphins aren’t just evaluating a quarterback. They’re evaluating a direction.
Jeff Hafley is bringing in a new culture, a new system, and likely a new approach to the most important position in football. Jon-Eric Sullivan, fresh from his time in Green Bay’s front office, knows the value of a quarterback who fits the system and the locker room.
Right now, it’s hard to see how Tua checks either box.
So where does that leave Miami? Staring down a decision that’s going to hurt in the short term, but might be necessary for long-term growth. Eating $99 million in dead cap is brutal - but continuing with a quarterback the new regime doesn’t fully believe in might be worse.
The Dolphins have a choice to make. It won’t be cheap, and it won’t be easy. But if they’re serious about building a contender under Hafley and Sullivan, it might be time to rip off the bandage and move forward - even if it means rewriting the books in the process.