Week 9 gave bettors a pretty clean slate if they were riding the favorites. Out of 15 NFL games, only one ended with an upset, and the Green Bay Packers were the lone team to pull it off against the New England Patriots. One of the three upset-pick writers had Green Bay, so at least somebody saw it coming.
Now the focus shifts to Week 11, and the hope is for a little more chaos on the board. Here are the upset calls for this weekend’s slate.
The first one comes with some skepticism attached to Detroit’s defense. The Lions have won four straight, beating Arizona, Minnesota and Miami along the way, but there’s still a wait-and-see feeling around that side of the ball. Defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard earned credit for how his group handled Jordan Love in the Week 7 win over Green Bay, but one strong showing isn’t enough to fully buy into a turnaround yet.
That’s part of why the Patriots are the pick here. Drake Maye has shown a pattern of bouncing back after losses.
New England got blown out by Green Bay last week, but Maye responded with wins over the Steelers in Week 2 and the Bills in Week 4 after earlier defeats. The Dolphins win in Week 8 also came after a loss.
There’s also the fact that the Patriots haven’t dropped two straight games this season.
Detroit’s offense has also cooled off a bit. The Lions have failed to score 21 points in three straight games, which makes this matchup feel a little less comfortable for them than it might have a few weeks ago.
The next upset leans on a team that has only one win in the 2026 season, but has still been hanging around. Miami has covered the spread in four of eight games and has been competitive in a string of recent matchups. Now the Dolphins are underdogs with Kyle McCord set to start against an Indianapolis team that has just two wins and looks like it’s already shifting toward the future after moves made before the trade deadline.
The numbers point to two teams that are pretty close to each other. The Colts are 25th in EPA/Play on defense, while Miami is 28th.
On offense, Indianapolis sits 28th in EPA/Play and the Dolphins are 24th. Even with those rankings, Miami has looked better lately.
That showed up in Week 9, when the Dolphins held Detroit to 19 points. Since the start of October, they’ve had one-possession losses to Minnesota, Cincinnati and New England, and they also beat the New York Jets. Against another struggling opponent, Miami should have a chance to move the ball after having trouble doing that against Detroit.
The Colts, meanwhile, are easy to fade right now. They were blasted 42-7 by Jacksonville in Week 8 and have lost five in a row. Between the recent form and the overall profile, this feels like a spot to go against Indianapolis.
The last upset pick is the one that may feel the most overdue. The Chargers have been a team plenty of bettors have tried to talk themselves into all season with the idea that they had to win or cover eventually. This time, the pick is to back them.
The case starts on defense. The Chargers have been just as good, if not better, than the Ravens on that side of the ball. Their opponent EPA per play numbers are 16th and 17th, and the Chargers are 18th in opponent success rate while the Ravens are 22nd.
On offense, the Chargers have been bad, but the question is whether Baltimore is really in position to take advantage. Jacoby Brissett, an ineffective Derrick Henry, and a bad Ravens receiving core don’t exactly inspire confidence against Justin Herbert and Co.
So after spending most of the season avoiding the Chargers, this is the week to finally take them. The pick is that this is when they get their first win.
In Other News...
Dolphins Home Crowd Problem Is Becoming Impossible To Ignore
After the Week 9 loss, the conversation around the Dolphins shifted from the field to the stands, where visiting fans have become impossible to miss at home games. Players noticed it, too, with the atmosphere inside Hard Rock Stadium drawing attention for feeling far less like a true home setting than Miami would want, especially when the opponent brings a loud and visible crowd.
The bigger issue, according to the discussion around the team, is not a lack of interest in the Dolphins so much as the way tickets are getting into the market. Between pricing, aftermarket sales and the incentives around attendance, local fans are being pushed out while more out-of-town supporters find their way in. It leaves Miami with a home-field problem that goes beyond one game and points back to the way the team has chosen to sell the experience. [Read more 🡒]
Dolphins Are About To Learn A Lot From Kyle McCords Debut
Kyle McCord is about to get his first real NFL test in a setting that should tell the Dolphins plenty about where he stands. The 2025 sixth-round pick, who spent his rookie season on the Philadelphia Eagles practice squad before Miami acquired him in a trade with Green Bay, is set to start against the Indianapolis Colts, giving the Dolphins a chance to see how he handles the speed, pressure and decision-making that come with an actual game plan.
It is also a different kind of debut than the ones Miami has recently seen at quarterback, both in how McCord arrived and in the offensive environment around him. The draft pedigree is modest, the path here has been unusual, and the Dolphins are still trying to learn what they have after paying a future sixth-round pick to bring him in. Sunday should offer a clearer read on McCord, even if it may not answer every question right away. [Read more 🡒]
Dolphins Defense Just Sent A Strong Message About One Rising Leader
Injuries have already forced the Dolphins to adjust their leadership structure, and the latest move says plenty about where the locker room sees things heading. Miami added Josh Uche as a replacement captain after the teams original group was thinned out, a sign that the defense has identified a player who has quickly earned trust through his work this season.
Jeff Hafley said the request for another captain came from the players themselves, which makes the decision feel less like a formality and more like a reflection of the rooms priorities. Uches rise has been tied to the impact he has made on defense and the respect he has built with teammates and coaches, and the team made it official during Wednesdays meeting. [Read more 🡒]