If the Miami Dolphins are going to turn heads in 2026, it’s going to take a whole lot of things breaking just right.
This is not the kind of roster that suddenly becomes a juggernaut on reputation alone. It would take a strange mix of bargain-bin free agents actually delivering, a draft class that lands with real force, and enough young talent developing quickly enough to change the conversation. In other words, Miami would need something close to a perfect storm.
Still, the early read on the Dolphins’ first year under the new regime isn’t entirely bleak. The betting markets don’t think much of them, but there are at least a few reasons to think the floor might not be as low as some expect.
Vic Tafur of The Athletic recently broke down the win totals for all 32 teams and landed on Miami going over 4.5 wins, which would put the Dolphins at 5-12 or better. His reasoning was blunt:
"Poor Malik Willis. He takes his talents to South Beach, and then the Dolphins gut the roster.
New play caller Bobby Slowik can’t be as bad as he was in Houston thanks to elite running back De’Von Achane, an underrated offensive line, a running quarterback and a Miami heat that wears down defenses. We’re going to need to sweep the Jets, but yeah, take the over."
Even that modest projection would still leave Miami two games behind last season’s 7-10 finish, and that would be a real feat given how much has changed. General manager Jon-Eric Sullivan has torn down and reshaped the roster, and head coach Jeff Hafley will be trying to get a long list of young players up to speed fast.
There are reasons to like parts of what Miami has assembled. Willis gives the offense a different kind of presence, and the offensive line has enough upside to create running room for Achane. On the other side, Hafley’s background with the defense, especially in the secondary, could help first-round pick Chris Johnson settle in as a starter at cornerback right away.
But even with those positives, five wins still feels like a tough climb.
There is a path where Miami splits with the Bills and Patriots, who are viewed as the top two teams in the AFC East. There is also a path where Josh Allen and Drake Maye simply take over games and sweep the Dolphins themselves.
And then there’s the Jets, who remain the division’s bottom-feeder, even after spending heavily to upgrade their roster this offseason. Getting two wins from that matchup, as Tafur suggested, is not going to come easily.
The schedule doesn’t do Miami many favors either. The Dolphins have to deal with the NFC North and the AFC West, and the Week 1 trip to Las Vegas is the softest spot among those eight games.
So the expectation here is not a team that’s going to pile up wins. It’s a team that should be in games for stretches, but may not have the personnel to finish them off consistently.
That doesn’t mean the season would be pointless. For a team in this kind of transition, the bigger goal is buy-in.
The Dolphins need players to stay engaged, keep fighting through the losses and build something that lasts. They’ll also have plenty of cap space over the next two offseasons and should have strong draft capital in 2027 at least.
That’s why this could resemble the early stages of the Lions’ climb under Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes. Campbell’s Detroit start was 4-19-1 before the turnaround really took off.
Hafley may not reach that same level of success, but the blueprint is there for a patient rebuild. Campbell’s Lions have gone 44-17 since that rough opening stretch.
So yes, Dolphins fans should be patient. Five wins wouldn’t be good in any normal sense, but it also wouldn’t be a disaster.
It wouldn’t have to mean Sullivan and Hafley are one-and-done. It could be the first real step toward getting Miami back into the NFL conversation.
In Other News...
Dolphins Training Camp Could Wipe Out Chris Griers Draft Legacy
Austin Jackson is the last Miami draft pick from 2020 still standing as training camp opens, and even his place has come with some offseason reshuffling. The Dolphins reworked his contract to create cap room, and while health and durability have been part of the conversation, Jackson is still expected to be part of the plan as the team sorts through a roster that looks very different from the one Chris Grier kept building over the past several years.
What makes this camp so telling is how many of those earlier draft classes are already hanging by a thread. Miamis 2021 group is gone, the 2022 class could be wiped out if Cameron Goode loses his linebacker battle, and even younger names like Malik and Tahj Washington, plus Jaylen Wright, are not locked in despite their pedigree. The 2025 class appears safer for now, but the bigger question is whether this summer becomes the point where Griers draft history is trimmed down to almost nothing before the final roster is even set. [Read more 🡒]
Dolphins Offense Enters Camp With One Massive Question Hanging Over It
The Dolphins are heading into camp with an offense that looks nothing like the one fans watched a year ago, a reflection of how much turnover has hit the unit in a short span. With Mike McDaniel gone and Bobby Slowik taking over as offensive coordinator, Miami is trying to rebuild its identity while blending in a new quarterback and several fresh faces before the 2026 season.
Slowiks arrival gives the Dolphins a clear direction, but it also puts the spotlight on how quickly the group can come together after so much change around the quarterback room and the skill positions. Camp will now be less about refining an established system and more about figuring out what this version of the offense can actually become, which is exactly why the biggest question still hangs over the whole operation. [Read more 🡒]