The Dolphins keep showing up near the bottom of preseason NFL chatter, but history says those early judgments are a shaky way to crown the league’s worst team.
A glance across the usual power rankings has Miami getting treated like a disaster before a snap has been played. Bleacher Report, ESPN, NFL Spin Zone - the Dolphins have been sitting at or near the basement in plenty of preseason lists. But with zero games on the board, that noise only means so much.
To get a better read on how reliable those calls really are, the preseason rankings from ESPN, NFL.com, and the lowest-rated Madden team - or teams, if there was a tie - were compared against how those teams actually finished. The sample covered every season since 2016, giving a look at how often the supposed worst team really ended up earning the No. 1 pick.
ESPN came out on top in this exercise, with its preseason pick for worst team finishing with an average draft slot of 5.7. It nailed the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2020, but its biggest miss came with the Miami Dolphins in 2018, who ended up picking 13th.
EA Sports landed in second. Its lowest-rated team before the season finished with an average draft position of 6.1, and it had two exact matches: the 2020 Jaguars and the 2016 Cleveland Browns. The biggest miss there was the 2017 Los Angeles Rams, who made a playoff run despite being the game’s worst roster.
NFL.com finished third, though it was close, with its preseason worst-team picks averaging a 6.2 draft slot. It had the most direct hits of the bunch, correctly identifying the team that would pick first overall in 2020, 2016, and 2022 - the Jaguars, Browns, and Chicago Bears. But it also whiffed badly in 2018 by tabbing the Colts as the league’s worst team, only for them to make a playoff run, win a playoff game, and finish with the 26th pick.
Across 30 total predictions, there were just six direct hits. That works out to roughly a 20% success rate at identifying the NFL’s worst team this early in the process.
So while plenty of people are already writing off the 2026 Dolphins, the history here says to slow down. Maybe Miami surprises the way the Colts and Rams did.
Maybe it ends up looking like the 2020 Jaguars. Or maybe it settles somewhere in the middle, which is often where the Dolphins have lived.
For now, the season hasn’t started, and that’s the point. The real story gets written when the games begin. Until then, training camp gets the spotlight.
In Other News...
Dolphins Fans May Finally Be Getting The Uniform Update They Crave
The latest jersey rollout around the NFL has only fueled the kind of uniform chatter Dolphins fans know well. Fanatics is selling stitched-style authentic jerseys for 30 teams, but Miami and New Orleans were left out, which has naturally led to speculation that both clubs may be headed toward something new down the line. For a fan base that has spent years debating the look, even a small omission can feel like a clue.
What makes the conversation more interesting is that any update does not necessarily have to mean a full throwback revival. The most realistic path could be a refresh built around the current identity, with changes to the color palette, striping, shading or font rather than a wholesale return to an old logo. No official announcement has been made, but the absence from this rollout has already given Dolphins supporters something to watch for, and maybe a reason to keep an eye on 2027. [Read more 🡒]
Dolphins Rebuild Is Drawing Brutal Reviews For One Troubling Reason
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What stands out most is how thin the margin for optimism looks right now, especially with questions still swirling around the quarterback spot and a receiver group that no longer carries the same punch. The defense has its own set of unknowns, and the overall picture is so shaky that some evaluators are already wondering whether Miami can avoid a full bottom-out in the standings. [Read more 🡒]
Jacob Rodriguez May Be Forcing A Dolphins Decision Already
The Dolphins spent a second-round pick on Jacob Rodriguez even with Jordyn Brooks and Tyrel Dodson already in the linebacking room, a move that said plenty about how Miami views the Texas Tech product. Rodriguez arrived with a different kind of background too, having spent time at quarterback before becoming a linebacker, and that versatility has helped shape the way he sees the game as he settles into the NFL.
Rodriguez has also fit quickly into the building, praising the teams facilities and the overall care Miami provides while he and the rest of the rookie class grind through their early work ahead of training camp. The bigger question now is how soon his presence starts to affect the depth chart, because when a rookie linebacker is already drawing attention in practice, the veterans around him can feel the pressure even before the pads come on. [Read more 🡒]