As we head into Week 15 of the NFL season, the playoff picture is starting to sharpen. Contenders are separating from the pack, pretenders are falling off, and every game is starting to feel like it carries postseason weight. Monday Night Football will close out the week with a matchup that could have major implications in the AFC: the Miami Dolphins travel to face the Pittsburgh Steelers, and both teams are clinging to playoff hopes that looked improbable just a few weeks ago.
Let’s break down where things stand in both conferences and what to watch for as teams jockey for playoff position.
AFC Playoff Picture: Tight at the Top, Crowded in the Middle
Current Seeds: 1.
Denver Broncos (11-2) - AFC West leader
2.
New England Patriots (11-2) - AFC East leader
3.
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4) - AFC South leader
4.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) - AFC North leader
5.
Los Angeles Chargers (9-4) - Wild Card 1
6.
Buffalo Bills (9-4) - Wild Card 2
7.
Houston Texans (8-5) - Wild Card 3
In the Hunt:
- Indianapolis Colts (8-5)
- Baltimore Ravens (6-7)
- Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)
- Miami Dolphins (6-7)
Eliminated:
- New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans
The Dolphins’ Path: Every Game Is a Must-Win
After starting the season 1-6, the Dolphins have clawed their way back into the playoff conversation at 6-7. But with a logjam of teams hovering around .500, there’s little room for error.
Monday night’s showdown in Pittsburgh is massive. A win would move Miami to 7-7 and drop the Steelers to the same record, giving the Dolphins a crucial head-to-head edge in the Wild Card race.
But it’s not just about Miami winning. They’ll need help elsewhere. Here are the matchups that matter most for the Dolphins’ playoff hopes in Week 15:
Key AFC Games to Watch
🔹 Dolphins at Steelers (MNF)
This is the big one.
Miami needs to keep stacking wins, and beating a current division leader on the road would be a statement. It also drags Pittsburgh back into the Wild Card mess, which benefits Miami.
🔹 Ravens at Bengals
The AFC North is still up for grabs, but from Miami’s perspective, the best-case scenario is Baltimore winning the division.
That would eliminate the Ravens’ head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins in the Wild Card race. A Ravens win also keeps the Bengals from making a late-season push with Joe Burrow back under center.
🔹 Cardinals at Texans
Houston currently holds the final Wild Card spot, but they’re also in a three-way battle for the AFC South crown with the Jaguars and Colts.
Miami’s best hope is that only one of those teams wins the division, while the others fall out of the Wild Card picture. An Arizona upset here would help that cause.
🔹 Jets at Jaguars
The Jets are already out, but the Jaguars are sitting pretty at 9-4.
Miami would prefer Jacksonville stays atop the AFC South, rather than slip into the Wild Card race. A win here keeps the Jags focused on the division, not crowding the Wild Card field.
🔹 Chargers at Chiefs
Miami could’ve used a Chargers loss last night, but LA held off the Eagles and now looks poised to lock up the top Wild Card spot.
That means the Dolphins need to focus on teams like Kansas City, who are also 6-7. A Chargers win here helps Miami leapfrog the Chiefs-assuming, of course, the Dolphins handle their own business.
🔹 Bills at Patriots
Buffalo is three games ahead of Miami, but they’re not completely out of reach.
More importantly, a Patriots win here helps them solidify the AFC East title-and if New England locks up the top seed, they might rest starters in Week 18. That could be a golden opportunity for Miami if they’re still in the hunt.
🔹 Colts at Seahawks
Indianapolis is ahead of Miami and holds the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to a dominant Week 1 win. The Dolphins need to pass them outright, and a Colts loss to an NFC opponent would make that job a little easier.
🔹 Packers at Broncos
This one’s more of a long play.
If the Patriots can sneak into the No. 1 seed, they might rest starters in the final week. For that to happen, Denver needs to lose, and the Packers are in position to make that happen.
AFC Tiebreaker Notes
- Broncos > Patriots: Better AFC record (7-2 vs. 6-2)
- Chargers > Bills: Better AFC record (7-2 vs. 6-3)
- Texans > Colts: Head-to-head win
- Ravens > Chiefs/Dolphins: Better AFC record (4-5 vs. 3-5 vs.
3-6)
- Chiefs > Dolphins: Better AFC record (3-5 vs.
3-6)
NFC Playoff Picture: Rams Lead, But It’s a Battle Behind Them
Current Seeds: 1.
Los Angeles Rams (10-3) - NFC West leader
2.
Green Bay Packers (9-3-1) - NFC North leader
3.
Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) - NFC East leader
4.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) - NFC South leader
5.
Seattle Seahawks (10-3) - Wild Card 1
6.
San Francisco 49ers (9-4) - Wild Card 2
7.
Chicago Bears (9-4) - Wild Card 3
In the Hunt:
- Detroit Lions (8-5)
- Carolina Panthers (7-6)
- Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)
- Minnesota Vikings (5-8)
Eliminated:
- Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals, New Orleans Saints, Washington Commanders, New York Giants
The NFC is shaping up to be just as competitive, especially in the Wild Card race. The Rams are in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 seed, but the Packers are right behind them. There’s a real chance that Week 18 could feature multiple games with seeding implications, and with the way these teams are playing, don’t be surprised if tiebreakers come into play.
What’s Next
Week 15 is loaded with playoff implications across the board. For the Dolphins, the path is narrow, but it’s still there.
Monday night in Pittsburgh could make or break their season. And for the rest of the AFC, it’s a high-stakes game of musical chairs-only seven teams get in, and there are still more than a dozen fighting for those spots.
Buckle up. December football is here, and the drama is just getting started.