Jeremiah Smith looks like the kind of prospect teams daydream about, but for the Dolphins, he might not be the smartest use of a premium 2027 draft pick.
That’s the tension facing Miami right now. The Dolphins are sitting in line for a very early selection, and with Smith already viewed as the top player in college football at this stage of the draft cycle, it’s easy to see why fans and mock drafters have latched onto the idea of bringing the Miami Gardens native home.
On pure talent, he fits the definition of best player available. On roster need, Miami can make a case for almost anywhere else.
Through Week 5, the Dolphins own the third slot in the 2027 draft because their combined opponent winning percentage is higher than the other two 0-5 teams, the Tennessee Titans and Los Angeles Chargers. ESPN’s Football Power Index, though, gives Miami a 49 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick, ahead of Tennessee at 20 percent and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 8 percent.
If Miami does end up at the top, the better move might be to trade down a few spots, collect more assets, and still add a high-end talent to help with the rebuild. This is a team that needs volume, not just star power.
If the Dolphins stay at No. 1, 2 or 3, the case here is to go in another direction - either a quarterback, if they decide Malik Willis is not the long-term answer, or another premium position. And even if the jury is still out on Willis despite the rough start, the bigger point is simple: in today’s NFL, quarterback, tackle, pass rusher and cornerback sit at the top of the positional value ladder, with wide receiver a tier below that.
That doesn’t mean wide receiver doesn’t matter. It does.
But it depends heavily on everything around it. A receiver needs a quarterback to get him the ball and, usually, an offensive line that gives that quarterback enough time to throw.
He also gets limited touches compared with other impact players, even if those touches can still change a game and force defenses to adjust.
The championship history backs up that caution. Over the previous 10 Super Bowl winners - Kansas City three times, Philadelphia and New England twice, Tampa Bay, the L.A.
Rams and most recently Seattle - their starting lineups included 13 players who entered the NFL as top 5 picks. Only one was a wide receiver: Sammy Watkins, who won with Kansas City in 2019 but was originally drafted by Buffalo five years earlier.
The rest of that group tells the story of where top-end value usually lives. It included four quarterbacks - Tom Brady, Carson Wentz, Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold - along with a running back in Saquon Barkley, tackle Lane Johnson, edge defenders Chris Long and Von Miller, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, linebacker Devin White and cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Devon Witherspoon.
There’s also a more specific trend that doesn’t help the wide receiver argument. In the 15 drafts between and 2024, 12 edge defenders went among the first five picks, and 10 of them reached the playoffs with the team that drafted them.
Cornerbacks had a similar track record, with six of eight making the playoffs with their original club. Quarterbacks were at 18 of 24.
Wide receivers? Four of seven, or 57 percent.
The wideouts who did make it with their drafting team were A.J. Green, Amari Cooper, Corey Davis and Ja’Marr Chase. The ones who didn’t were Justin Blackmon, Sammy Watkins and Marvin Harrison Jr.
Harrison’s situation matters here, because he was supposed to be a can’t-miss star when he came out of Ohio State in 2024. He wasn’t viewed quite as highly as Smith is now, but his trade in his third season - from the Arizona Cardinals to the Houston Texans for a second-round pick and a late-round swap - is still a reminder that even elite college receivers can come with more risk than people want to admit.
Calvin Johnson is the other end of the argument, the example Smith believers will point to immediately. Johnson was the prototype: 6-5, 4.2-4.3 speed and route-running ability to match. He became a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and the Detroit Lions had no reason to regret taking him second overall in 2007.
Even so, the Lions made the playoffs only twice in Johnson’s nine seasons. That wasn’t his fault, but it reinforced the broader point: one great receiver doesn’t fix everything, even with Matthew Stafford throwing him the ball.
Miami has already lived through a version of that reality with Tyreek Hill. Hill was as explosive as advertised, a player who forced defenses to account for him on every snap and created space for the offense around him. With Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins still won exactly zero playoff games in four years.
Supporters of Smith, or critics of Hill, can argue that Hill faded in the biggest moments or lacked the size to hold up when games got more physical. There’s something to that. Smith, by contrast, brings both athleticism and size.
And if Miami somehow reaches next spring feeling like it is one receiver away from contending, then taking Smith would make sense at No. 1, No. 2 or wherever the board falls.
But that’s not where this roster is right now. Smith is a terrific prospect and likely a very good NFL player.
For the Dolphins, the better move is probably to look elsewhere and make the most of what should be a high draft slot.
In Other News...
Dolphins Bye Week Just Raised Fresh Concerns Before Final 10-Game Stretch
The Dolphins Week 6 bye was supposed to offer a brief reset, and Tuesdays light practice at least gave the team a little runway to recover before the final 10 games. It also came with the usual churn of a bye week, as Miami made multiple roster moves to bolster both the 53-man group and the practice squad while the coaching staff tried to keep the workload light.
Still, the first workout of the break offered a couple of things worth watching. Jordyn Brooks was not on the field after the foot injury he suffered in Sundays loss to the Bengals, and Malik Willis was not seen throwing during the session, which adds another layer to a stretch that already feels important for a team trying to get healthy and steady itself for the second half of the season. The rest of the week is expected to stay quiet, but the health picture coming out of the bye may matter just as much as the rest. [Read more 🡒]
Kenneth Grant Could Change One Big Problem For Miamis Defense
Kenneth Grant finally gave the Dolphins a look at what he can bring to the middle of the defense after sitting out the first four games with a toe injury. His season debut offered a welcome boost for a unit that has been searching for more stability inside, and coaches and teammates have been encouraged by the way he fits into Jeff Hafleys defensive scheme.
The next step is getting Grant back into a fuller rhythm, because Miami has bigger plans for him than a single cameo. He has talked about wanting to sharpen his play this season and make a real impact, and the Dolphins are clearly hoping his presence can help address one of the defenses lingering problems as the schedule keeps moving. [Read more 🡒]
Dolphins Offense Has 3 Problems The Bye Week Must Start Fixing
The Dolphins come out of the bye week with the Jets next on the schedule, and the pause should give the staff a chance to reset an offense that has too many loose ends. Miami needs steadier play at quarterback, better production up front from Austin Jackson, and a clearer answer at running back behind starter Ollie Gordon, where injuries and thin depth have left the room looking vulnerable as the schedule toughens.
Malik Willis has been at the center of the quarterback inconsistency, and the bye offers a little breathing room for the coaching staff to sort through what it wants to be on offense. The backfield picture is just as uneasy, with Jaylen Wright banged up and the team leaning on limited options behind Gordon, so the next stretch of practice sessions should tell plenty about how aggressively Miami tries to patch things before returning to game action. [Read more 🡒]