Dolphins Face Familiar Foe: December Cold, Not Just the Jets
The Miami Dolphins are riding a hot streak-winners of three straight and four of their last five after a sluggish 1-6 start. But as they head into December, it's not just the New York Jets standing in their way. The real opponent might be the calendar-and the cold that comes with it.
If you’ve followed the Dolphins over the years, you know how this story tends to go. December hasn’t been kind to Miami. And for a franchise still searching for its first playoff win in 25 years, the late-season collapse has become an all-too-familiar script.
December Has Not Been Dolphin-Friendly
We’ve seen it before. The Dolphins pull off a dramatic win-like the Thanksgiving Day "Leon Lett game" or the unforgettable “Miami Miracle” against the Patriots in 2018-and then fall flat the rest of the way.
Those moments were electric, no doubt. But they were also outliers in a month that’s usually spelled trouble for Miami.
More recently, the Dolphins got off to strong starts in 2022 (8-3) and 2023 (9-3), only to limp into the postseason and bow out in the Wild Card round. The pattern is clear: Miami can’t seem to finish strong when it matters most.
And the cold-weather games? That’s been the biggest hurdle of all.
Tua’s Cold-Weather Struggles Are Well-Documented
Let’s talk numbers. Tua Tagovailoa is 0-7 in games where the temperature is 46 degrees or colder at kickoff.
When it’s 50 or below, he’s just 1-8. That lone win?
It came against the Jets-with Tim Boyle under center for New York. Not exactly a high bar.
This Sunday, the Dolphins head to MetLife Stadium, where the forecast calls for 38 degrees at kickoff. That’s not ideal for a quarterback who’s struggled in these conditions. And while Tua is undefeated against the Jets (6-0 in games he’s played), he’s also in the midst of his worst season statistically.
He hasn’t thrown for over 200 yards in three straight games. He has just two touchdown passes in his last four outings-both coming against Buffalo. That’s not the kind of production you want heading into a must-win game, especially against a Jets team that’s quietly turned things around.
Jets Aren’t Rolling Over
New York started the season 0-7, but they’ve won three of their last five and found a bit of rhythm with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. The offense isn’t explosive, but it’s competent-and that’s a big shift from earlier in the year. The Jets are playing with confidence, and they’d love nothing more than to play spoiler against a division rival.
For Miami, the margin for error is razor thin. Even if they win out, there’s no guarantee they’ll make the playoffs. That’s the kind of pressure that can either sharpen a team or break it.
Flashback to 2021: A Warning Sign
We’ve seen this movie before. In 2021, the Dolphins pulled off a rare feat-winning seven straight after losing seven straight. But when they needed one more win to stay alive in the playoff hunt, they traveled to Tennessee and got steamrolled by the top-seeded Titans, 34-3.
Tua was off all game-just 18 of 38 passing. It remains his worst cold-weather performance in terms of completion percentage.
In cold games overall, he’s thrown nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Miami’s average margin of defeat in those games?
A staggering 18.3 points.
That’s not just losing-it’s getting dominated.
Make or Break Moment
This Sunday’s game isn’t just another division matchup-it could be a defining moment for this Dolphins team and for Tagovailoa’s trajectory as the franchise quarterback.
Miami has looked solid the past two weeks, but let’s be honest-the Commanders and Saints aren’t exactly playoff-caliber opponents. The Jets are playing better football, and they’ve got a defense that can take advantage of a quarterback who’s off his game.
If the Dolphins want to keep their playoff hopes alive, Tua has to flip the script. He has to play better than he has in recent weeks. And he has to do it in the cold, on the road, in December-something he’s yet to prove he can do.
Because if he can’t, the conversation in Miami might shift quickly. And with a young quarterback like Quinn Ewers waiting in the wings, the pressure to make a change could come sooner than expected.
This isn’t just about beating the Jets. It’s about proving that this team-and this quarterback-can finally handle the heat when the weather turns cold.