The Dolphins Are Surging - But Can They Pull Off a Miracle Playoff Run?
It’s been a season of twists and turns for the Miami Dolphins, but somehow, here we are in mid-December, and they’re still in the fight. After a rough start that had fans questioning everything from the quarterback to the coaching staff, Miami has clawed its way back into the conversation. With a win on Monday night in Pittsburgh, the Dolphins can even their record at 7-7 - a .500 mark that felt out of reach just a month ago.
Let’s not sugarcoat it: the path to the playoffs is a steep climb. But with four games left and a four-game win streak fueling their momentum, the Dolphins have at least earned the right to dream.
The Turnaround No One Saw Coming
At 6-7, Miami’s current record doesn’t scream "playoff team," but context matters. This team has won five of its last six, including a shocking upset over the Buffalo Bills that flipped the energy around the franchise. That win didn’t just provide a jolt of confidence - it may have saved head coach Mike McDaniel’s job.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, however, remains a wild card. He’s tied for the league lead with 14 interceptions - a stat that underscores the inconsistency that’s plagued his season. There have been moments of brilliance, sure, but also head-scratching throws that have kept Miami’s offense from finding its full rhythm.
Still, the Dolphins are playing their best football of the year at the right time. And in the NFL, that’s often what matters most.
The Math Isn’t Pretty - But It’s Not Zero
Let’s be real: the odds are stacked against them. Miami sits two games back of the final AFC wild-card spot, and they’re not just chasing the Houston Texans - who currently hold that seventh seed - but also the Colts, Ravens, and Chiefs. That’s a crowded field, and the tiebreakers aren’t in Miami’s favor.
According to projections, the Dolphins have less than a 1% chance to make the playoffs. Even if they win out and finish 10-7, those odds only rise to 11%. That’s a tough pill, especially considering their chances were slightly better just a week ago.
But as long as there’s a path, there’s a reason to keep fighting - and for fans, a reason to keep scoreboard-watching.
The Road Ahead: No Easy Outs
Miami’s remaining schedule doesn’t do them any favors. Monday’s matchup in Pittsburgh kicks off a brutal four-game stretch. The Steelers are 7-6 and very much in the playoff mix themselves, making this a must-win for both sides.
After that, the Dolphins return home to face the Bengals - and while Cincinnati has had its ups and downs, they’re still armed with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins. That’s a lot of firepower for a Miami secondary that’s been tested all year.
According to Tankathon, the Dolphins’ remaining opponents have a combined win percentage of .558 - tied for the 10th-toughest slate in the league. The only team below .500 left on the schedule is Cincinnati, and even that’s a dangerous matchup. There are no layups here.
Who Dolphins Fans Should Be Rooting For This Weekend
If the Dolphins are going to pull off a miracle, they’ll need help - and plenty of it. Here’s who Miami fans should be cheering for on Sunday:
Ravens vs. Bengals: Root for Cincinnati
The Ravens, like the Dolphins, are 6-7. But Baltimore owns the head-to-head tiebreaker after a dominant 28-6 win back in October.
That means Miami has to finish ahead of them outright. A Bengals win would go a long way in clearing that lane.
Cardinals vs. Texans: Root for Arizona
Houston is red-hot, riding a five-game win streak and holding a better in-conference record than Miami. The Texans’ recent win over the Colts also gives them an edge in the wild-card race.
If Arizona can cool them off, it opens the door just a crack wider for the Dolphins.
Chargers vs. Chiefs: Root for LA
Miami can’t realistically catch the Chargers unless things get really weird, but the Chiefs are in reach. Kansas City has dropped four of its last five - a stunning slide for the three-time reigning AFC champs.
If Justin Herbert and the Chargers can keep that trend going, Miami benefits.
Bills vs. Patriots: Root for New England
This one’s tricky. The Bills are likely out of reach, but every potential wild-card spot counts.
A Patriots win would clinch the AFC East and potentially knock Buffalo into the wild-card pool, where chaos could work in Miami’s favor.
Colts vs. Seahawks: Root for Seattle
This might be the most winnable rooting interest for Dolphins fans. The Seahawks are 10-3 and rolling, while the Colts are trying to stop the bleeding after a hot start.
With Philip Rivers - yes, that Philip Rivers - back under center at age 44, Seattle could be in prime position to hand Indy a costly loss.
The AFC Playoff Picture (as of now)
Here’s how the AFC playoff standings look with four weeks to go:
- Denver (11-2)
- New England (11-2)
- Jacksonville (9-4)
- Pittsburgh (7-6)
- LA Chargers (9-4)
- Buffalo (9-4)
- Houston (8-5)
Indianapolis (8-5)
9.
Baltimore (6-7)
10.
Kansas City (6-7)
11.
Miami (6-7)
It’s a crowded race, and Miami’s margin for error is gone. But if they keep stacking wins - and get a little help along the way - the Dolphins might just sneak in through the back door.
Final Word
The Dolphins have gone from dead in the water to swimming upstream with purpose. The odds aren’t pretty, and the schedule is unforgiving, but this team has shown fight when it mattered most.
Monday night in Pittsburgh is the next test - and if they pass it, the playoff dream stays alive. For now, that's all Miami can ask for.