The Dolphins didn’t just leave Week 1 with a loss to the Raiders. They also walked right into the center of the NFL Draft conversation, where ESPN’s latest projections have Miami sitting at the top of the board.
ESPN’s Football Power Index is running week-by-week simulations on every team’s remaining schedule, then translating those results into draft order odds. After one week, the model has the Dolphins in a brutal spot: a 38% chance at the No. 1 pick, which is second overall in the league behind the Browns at 25%, an 87% shot at a top-five selection, and a 97% chance of landing in the top 10. Their average draft position in the simulations is 2.9.
None of that is especially surprising given how the opener played out, but it is still a harsh read on Miami’s outlook. The Dolphins didn’t get run off the field by Las Vegas so much as hand the Raiders chances they didn’t need to be given, and the result has them tracking like one of the league’s most uncertain teams.
The schedule ahead doesn’t offer much relief. Miami goes on the road to face the 49ers this week, then comes home for the Chiefs in Week 3, travels to Minnesota for a Week 4 matchup with the Vikings, and returns to face the Bengals before a Week 6 bye.
That’s why the draft chatter has already started to swell around the Dolphins. Plenty of preseason projections had them somewhere in the three- to five-win range, and the Raiders were widely viewed as one of the games that could help them get there. The Jets were in that category too, and they handled the Titans easily in Week 1.
Ryan Fitzpatrick had already floated the possibility of Miami going winless if it dropped the opener to Las Vegas. Vegas betting odds still have the Dolphins winning between three and five games, but after Week 1, those wins are a lot harder to spot.
In Other News...
Dolphins Run Defense Is Becoming A Bigger Problem Than Fans Expected
The run defense is starting to look like more than a one-game annoyance for the Dolphins after Las Vegas pushed the ball on the ground for 130 yards in the latest matchup. Ashton Jeanty did most of the damage, and the bigger concern for Miami was how often the Raiders were able to lean on their offensive line and keep the defense on its heels in the trenches.
Defensive coordinator Mike Hafley pointed to early tentative play and a few misalignments, though he did say the group settled in better after halftime. Even with that adjustment, Miami sits 23rd against the run, and the next stretch will go a long way in showing whether this was a bad afternoon or the start of a more stubborn problem. [Read more 🡒]
Dolphins Face A Week 2 Test They Cant Keep Avoiding
The Dolphins came out of Week 1 looking like a team still trying to find its offensive balance. Against the Raiders, Miami ran the ball only 18 times and never really settled into the kind of rhythm that has made this offense dangerous when it is at its best. For a team built around speed and spacing, the ground game still matters, and getting De'Von Achane going behind a sturdier interior front feels like a necessary step rather than a luxury.
Week 2 offers a clearer chance to clean that up, with San Francisco's interior defensive line coming in banged up and not nearly as imposing as it usually is. Miami's next test is not just about whether the Dolphins can create more efficient rushing lanes, but whether the offensive line can help them avoid another one-dimensional afternoon. The Niners still have pass rushers who can tilt a game, but the more immediate question for Miami is whether this is the week the run game finally gets treated like a real part of the plan. [Read more 🡒]
Dolphins Offense Already Faces Pressure To Prove Hafleys Identity Works
After the Dolphins season opener, Jeff Hafley made it clear where he wants this offense headed: on the ground. DeVon Achane handled 15 touches and Miami ran the ball 18 times in the first game of the 2026 season, a start that gave Hafley room to point back to his Boston College background, where his teams leaned heavily on the run and produced strong rushing numbers. For a team trying to establish a new identity, the early message was simple enough.
Now comes the harder part. Miami is heading into Week 2 against the San Francisco 49ers with the rushing attack already under the microscope, and the gap between a stated commitment and a functioning identity can close quickly in this league. The Dolphins do not need a philosophy lecture as much as they need the kind of run game that can hold up against a quality opponent and make Hafleys preferred blueprint look less like a coaching talking point and more like something the offense can actually build around. [Read more 🡒]