The Dolphins’ trip to face the Colts in Week 10 comes with a strange kind of weight: the result could shape the 2027 NFL Draft order in a big way.
Miami enters at 1-7 and currently sits at No. 3 in the draft order. Indianapolis is 2-7 and, on paper, would be in line for the No. 4 pick.
But the Colts no longer control that selection. They sent the rights to their first-rounder to the New York Jets last season in the Sauce Gardner deal, a move that made sense when Indianapolis was chasing a playoff push.
That push collapsed when quarterback Daniel Jones was injured, and the Colts’ season has gone downhill since. This year, they took the opposite approach and moved several players with rebuilding in mind. The problem is that they’re doing it without their own first-round pick, which makes Sunday’s game against Miami even more interesting.
The Jets are the real beneficiaries here. They’re rebuilding too, but they’re sitting in a stronger position than either the Dolphins or Colts, with three first-round picks in the 2027 draft. New York currently owns the No. 4 pick through Indianapolis, its own No. 6 selection, and No. 13 via the Dallas Cowboys in the Quinnen Williams trade.
The Jets had three first-round picks in this past April’s draft and also in 2022, but in neither case were all three picks in the top half of the round. With general manager Darren Mougey now making the calls, New York has a chance to turn that haul into something dangerous if he nails those selections.
That’s what makes the Colts’ teardown so relevant to Miami. Every move Indianapolis makes to strip down the roster gives the Jets a better shot at landing a premium pick next year. The Colts aren’t trying to help the Dolphins, of course, but their reset could end up helping New York more than anyone else.
After moving on from former general manager Chris Ballard, Indianapolis is clearly aiming for a fresh start. In the short term, though, that reset may mostly benefit the Jets. That’s why this matchup could matter so much for the 2027 draft picture.
At the top of the board, the Los Angeles Chargers are currently No. 1 at 0-8, with the Tennessee Titans at No. 2 at 1-7. But both teams still have paths to a few wins before the season ends, which could shuffle everything again.
Miami, meanwhile, has played hard all year and has gone toe-to-toe with some of the league’s best. Still, the outlook is getting tougher.
Malik Willis is on injured reserve, Kyle McCord is now the starter, and veteran defensive tackle Zach Sieler is out for the season. That makes it hard to see the Dolphins stacking many more wins, if any.
The Colts’ outlook isn’t much better after shipping out several assets of their own. That’s why there’s a real chance the winner of this game could be done winning for the year, while the loser might keep sliding all the way to the finish.
If that happens, Miami and New York could wind up with the top two picks next April. Which team lands No. 1 may come down to what happens Sunday.
For Dolphins fans, that creates an awkward tension. Jeff Hafley has a chance to pick up his second career win, and rooting against the home team is never easy. But in the long view, a Miami victory could help the Jets move ahead of the Dolphins in the draft order.
That said, “worth” is a slippery word here. This is still a young Dolphins team learning how to win, and every game is part of that process. GM Jon-Eric Sullivan already drew praise for his first draft with Miami, and there’s belief he can do it again no matter where the team picks.
Even so, the No. 1 pick changes everything. It gives a team control of the draft board. And if Miami loses Sunday, it would also keep the Jets from inching closer to that top spot.
So while most Dolphins fans will naturally want a win, this is one of those rare spots where the standings tell a different story. A victory might feel good now, but it could come with a cost in April.
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For a team trying to steady itself heading into Indianapolis, the additions point to depth concerns that go beyond one game-day checklist. The Colts made their own roster moves too, activating defensive end Arden Key off injured reserve and adjusting elsewhere, but Miamis sequence of decisions suggests the Dolphins are still sorting through the ripple effects of a roster that has been thinned in key spots. [Read more 🡒]