Five weeks into the Miami Dolphins’ 2026 season, the broad preseason picture is starting to sharpen - and not in the way many expected. The early belief that Miami might be better than it looked on paper disappeared fast after the loss to the Raiders, and a pair of preseason prediction pieces are now a mixed bag at best.
The biggest miss was the one that felt most certain before the games started: the win-loss outlook. Back in May, shortly after the schedule came out, the Dolphins were picked to beat the Raiders and Bengals.
A later record prediction shifted that around and had Miami beating the Raiders and Vikings in the early going. Neither version held up.
The Dolphins did battle the Vikings closely, but the first few weeks have gone nothing like the optimistic version of events. The final prediction piece, published in September, had Miami waiting until Week 10 against the Colts for its first win, with the Jets in Miami two weeks after that.
At this point, the earlier forecast of four wins already looks too generous, and two may be the ceiling fans can realistically hope for.
The defensive outlook, though, has aged much better. One of the preseason calls was that the defense would end up better than expected, and that one has held up.
Given the youth on that side of the ball and the system change, the unit has been more competitive than projected. Through five weeks, the defense has been the reason Miami has stayed in games, with the only clear dud coming against the 49ers in Week 2.
From Jacob Rodriguez to JuJu Brents to Jordan Phillips, the group has at least kept pace and shown week-to-week improvement.
Jacob Rodriguez, in particular, has become one of the season’s biggest success stories. The prediction that he could contend for DROTY potential looks very real so far.
He opened with a double-digit tackle debut, then followed that up with a league-leading single-game total of 18 tackles. His 54 tackles lead the entire NFL for now, though that will change during the bye week.
Even so, Rodriguez has already been everything Miami could have hoped for, and his name is starting to pop in the Rookie of the Year conversation.
Not every prediction has landed anywhere close. The idea that TuTu Atwell would earn a new contract is clearly dead.
Miami expected fireworks, but training camp suggested a trio of rookies had surpassed him. He was eventually traded back to the Rams for Jarquez Hunter, who is no longer on the roster.
That one missed badly.
Chop Robinson’s outlook remains unresolved. He didn’t get much going as a pass rusher early, then missed time with a concussion before coming back to record his first sack in Week 4.
The edge rush as a whole has been underwhelming, and Robinson has flashed without putting together the kind of consistent production the Dolphins need. The possibility that he turns the prediction into a win is still there, but he’ll need to do a lot more than he has so far.
The quarterback prediction, however, has gone firmly the other way. Malik Willis has not made the decision difficult for the front office.
Instead, five weeks in, the only thing some fans seem to want is for Miami to draft another quarterback in 2027. He has been erratic, inconsistent, and hasn’t shown he can be the long-term answer to the Dolphins’ quarterback problems.
In Other News...
Malik Willis Keeps Ignoring One Dolphins Fix They Clearly Need
Through five games of the 2026 season, Malik Willis has given the Dolphins enough to work with at quarterback, but his decision-making has also left a clear opening in the offense. One of the easiest ways to clean that up should be right in front of him. Miamis tight ends have been involved in the game plan, and Greg Dulcich and Will Kacmarek have both helped the unit in different ways, yet the passing game has not leaned on that group nearly enough.
That matters because the Dolphins have a position room that can help open things up if Willis and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik are willing to use it more consistently. Dulcich has flashed as a receiver, while Kacmarek has mostly been asked to do the dirty work, and the balance there suggests Miami has more room to grow on offense than it has shown so far. The question is whether Willis will start trusting the middle of the field more often, or keep leaving one of the teams clearest fixes on the table. [Read more 🡒]
Dolphins Ownership Just Got More Crowded Than Many Fans Realize
Stephen Ross has continued to widen the circle around the Dolphins, recently agreeing to sell a small minority stake in the franchise to Jean Eric Salata, pending approval. It is the latest sign that Miamis ownership structure has become a little more layered over time, with Ross bringing in outside capital while still holding the principal role that has defined the teams modern era.
Salata would join a long list of recognizable investors who already have ties to the Dolphins, a group that has included Ares Management, Lin Bin, Joe Tsai and Oliver Weisberg, Gloria and Emilio Estefan, Serena and Venus Williams, Marc Anthony, and Fergie. For fans, the takeaway is less about boardroom mechanics than the breadth of names attached to the franchise now, and how much more crowded that ownership picture has become. [Read more 🡒]
Malik Willis Pushes Back On What Dolphins Fans Saw Sunday
Before Miamis Week 5 matchup, Bengals safety Jordan Battle pointed to something he thought he saw from Malik Willis, suggesting the quarterback was tapping the ball before he threw it and that the habit helped lead to two interceptions. It was the kind of pregame remark that can stick with a player, especially when it sounds like a clean explanation for a turnover-heavy day.
Willis pushed back on that version of events, saying the interceptions came down to tipped passes and a scramble-drill mistake rather than any tell in his delivery. For Dolphins fans who had already noticed the playmaking swings around those turnovers, the dispute adds another layer to the debate over what really happened and whether the issue was habit, execution, or just a couple of bad breaks. [Read more 🡒]