The Miami Dolphins are drawing some ugly forecasts for 2026, and one NFL voice just pushed the doom button all the way down.
Nate Davis of USA TODAY projected the Dolphins to finish 1-16, which would give them the worst record in the league and the worst season in franchise history. Miami has never been through a year that rough; its low-water mark remains 1-15 in 2007.
Davis didn’t arrive at that number casually. He said he made picks for all 272 regular-season games before landing on that record for the Dolphins. His view is that Miami has stripped the roster down, is managing its salary cap, and is heading into the season with a lot of youth and inexperience in key spots.
“This isn’t meant to disrespect first-year GM Jon-Eric Sullivan, rookie HC Jeff Hafley or their players,” Davis wrote. “But there’s no denying that the Fins purged this roster, are cleaning up their salary cap and will predominantly roll with young and/or inexperienced starters in 2026, including first-time NFL QB1 Malik Willis.
Miami very much looks like a team that could struggle to pass the ball and struggle to disrupt opposing air attacks. ”
The setup around that prediction is brutal. Davis noted the Dolphins’ turnover from coach Mike McDaniel and former stars like Tua Tagovailoa and receiver Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, leaving behind an untested group.
He also pointed to the uncertainty surrounding Malik Willis, who is getting his first shot as the starter, with only De'Von Achane as a sure-fire offensive weapon. On top of that, the front office has been reworked, with new CEO Daniel Sillman part of the reset.
The schedule doesn’t do Miami any favors, either. Davis said the Dolphins have one of the league’s weakest rosters and one of its toughest slates, including nine opponents that had winning records in 2025. They’ll face two of those teams twice - the Bills and reigning AFC champion Patriots - and also draw the Chiefs with presumably healthy Patrick Mahomes and the Bengals with a vastly improved defense.
“The Dolphins also somehow wound up with the AFC’s toughest schedule (opponents with a .542 winning percentage in 2025) - and that’s with the Jets on there twice,” Davis wrote. “Ominous.”
A one-win season would be rare company in modern NFL history. Only one team this decade has managed that: the 2020 Jacksonville Jaguars, when the league still played 16 games.
Since the schedule expanded in 2021, only the 2023 Panthers have finished with two wins. In the 2010s, the only teams that poor were the Browns, who had one win between the 2016 and 2017 seasons.
Not everybody is as down on Miami. Connor Orr of Sports Illustrated projected the Dolphins at 5-12, which would still leave them near the bottom of the standings but not nearly in the same disaster zone. Orr said that kind of finish could actually create a different problem for Dolphins fans: it might leave them out of range for Arch Manning, Dante Moore or another top quarterback prospect in April’s draft.
“Like the first season of the Brian Flores regime, I have the Dolphins’ personnel bouncing upward with a change in leadership,” Orr wrote. “Jeff Hafley is a good coach who may be able to get something out of the existing roster that Mike McDaniel could not at the end of his time there. This isn’t a reflection on either person, but the idea that different people respond to different personality types.”
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