The NFC South is living up to its reputation as one of the league’s most unpredictable divisions. After Thursday night’s collapse, the Buccaneers now sit at 7-7, squandering a 14-point lead against the Falcons in a game that could come back to haunt them. That stumble opens the door for the Carolina Panthers, who, at 7-6, now find themselves atop the division with a critical matchup against the Saints looming this Sunday.
And here's where things get really interesting: Carolina and Tampa Bay are set to face off twice in the final three weeks of the season. Those two showdowns will almost certainly determine who claims the NFC South crown-and with it, the right to host a playoff game.
The stakes? One team punches its ticket to January football.
The other? Likely watching from the couch.
Now, let’s be honest-this isn’t the NFC West, where the bar for a division title might be 14 wins. It’s not even the NFC North, where 13 could be the magic number.
In the South, a 9-8 record might just be enough. And yes, the math is still alive for an 8-9 division champ.
That might sound wild, but it’s not without precedent.
History tells us that even teams with sub-.500 records can make some noise in the postseason. Take the 2008 Chargers, for example.
They went 8-8, but with Philip Rivers under center, they pulled off a dramatic 23-17 overtime win against the Colts in the wild-card round. They eventually bowed out to the Steelers, but not before making things interesting.
Then there was 2010-Marshawn Lynch’s Beast Quake game. The Seahawks, 7-9 that season, stunned the defending champion Saints with one of the most iconic runs in NFL history. Seattle’s run ended the following week against Chicago, but the message was clear: don’t sleep on the underdogs.
In 2011, it was Tim Tebow’s turn. The Broncos, another 8-8 squad, shocked Pittsburgh in overtime when Tebow hit Demaryius Thomas for a walk-off touchdown. The magic ran out in the next round against New England, but for a moment, Denver had the league’s attention.
Fast forward to 2014, and the Panthers followed a familiar script. They finished the regular season 7-8-1, but came out swinging in the playoffs, knocking off the Cardinals before falling to a far superior Seahawks team in the divisional round.
More recently, in 2020, both Washington and Chicago made it into the postseason with .500 or worse records. Neither team advanced, but their presence alone reminded us that in the NFL, the regular season record doesn’t always tell the full story.
So, as the NFC South gears up for its final stretch, don’t be too quick to dismiss the eventual champion based on record alone. History has shown us that once you’re in the tournament, anything can happen. And with two head-to-head matchups still to come between the Bucs and Panthers, we’re about to find out which team can rise above the chaos and seize the moment.