The stakes are high this Sunday as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Hard Rock Stadium to face the Miami Dolphins in a Week 17 showdown that carries very different implications for both teams. For Tampa Bay, it’s a must-win moment to stay alive in the playoff race. For Miami, it’s about evaluating the future - and more specifically, getting a good look at rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers after a turbulent season under center.
Let’s set the scene. The Bucs come in at 7-8, still in the hunt despite a brutal 1-6 skid that’s derailed what once looked like a promising campaign.
They opened the season 6-2, but the wheels have come off in recent weeks. Still, they’re 5.5-point favorites against a Dolphins team that’s officially out of the postseason picture and now navigating a full-blown quarterback reset.
That reset? It’s centered around Ewers, a seventh-round rookie who’s been thrust into the spotlight after the surprising benching of Tua Tagovailoa. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is sticking with Baker Mayfield, who enters the game with something to prove - not just for this season, but for his long-term viability as the Bucs’ starter.
Mayfield’s Mission: Reignite the Offense
Mayfield’s 2025 season has been a mixed bag, but the numbers tell a story of a quarterback who’s been more efficient than he’s given credit for. Through 15 games, he’s thrown 23 touchdowns to just 8 interceptions, with a 90.0 passer rating and over 3,100 passing yards. His completion percentage sits at 61.6%, and when he’s been at his best, he’s looked sharp - like in Week 5 against Seattle, where he lit up the Seahawks for 379 yards and two touchdowns on a near-flawless 87.9% completion rate.
This week, Mayfield gets a favorable matchup against a Miami defense that’s been leaky all year, especially in the secondary. The Dolphins are allowing a league-worst 71.49% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. That’s not just a crack in the armor - it’s a full-blown vulnerability, especially against quarterbacks who thrive on rhythm and timing.
Enter Mike Evans, back in the lineup and looking like his old self. Add in Chris Godwin, who’s finally healthy, and rookie Emeka Egbuka, who’s emerging as a legitimate threat, and suddenly Mayfield has a full arsenal at his disposal. The opportunity is there for Tampa Bay to find its offensive groove - and for Mayfield to capitalize with multiple touchdown drives early, especially in the red zone where the Bucs have struggled to convert (just 54.55% success rate).
This feels like a game where Mayfield could easily surpass his season average and toss three or more touchdowns if the Bucs execute early and often.
Mike Evans: The X-Factor Returns
Evans’ return two weeks ago was more than just a boost - it was a turning point. After missing six games with injury, he came back against Atlanta and immediately reminded everyone why he’s still one of the most dangerous receivers in the league.
Six catches, 132 yards, and that was on just 55% of the snaps. That’s not just production - that’s dominance.
In limited action this season, Evans has 25 catches for 303 yards and two scores. But the real story is how much Mayfield has leaned on him since his return.
Over the last two weeks, Evans has been targeted on a staggering 35% of Mayfield’s pass attempts. That’s WR1 usage, plain and simple.
And it couldn’t come at a better time. Miami’s secondary just gave up 183 yards and a touchdown to Cincinnati’s wide receivers last week.
Their outside corners have struggled in man coverage, and their safety rotation has been slow to react to deep threats. That’s a dangerous recipe against a big-bodied, physical receiver like Evans who thrives on contested catches and red zone mismatches.
Don’t be surprised if Evans eclipses 130 receiving yards and finds the end zone again. He’s the focal point of this offense right now, and Tampa Bay knows it.
Quinn Ewers: Baptism by Fire
On the other side, Quinn Ewers is getting a crash course in what life is like as an NFL starter. His debut last week against the Bengals was a mixed bag: 20-of-30 for 260 yards, but two interceptions and a 66.0 passer rating. There were flashes of arm talent, sure - but also signs of a rookie still adjusting to the speed and complexity of the pro game.
The challenge doesn’t get any easier this week. Tampa Bay’s defense ranks near the bottom in overall efficiency, but they’ve made a name for themselves by creating chaos. With 35 sacks on the year and a knack for forcing turnovers, this is a defense that knows how to rattle young quarterbacks.
Ewers’ biggest issue? Processing under pressure.
When his first read is taken away, things get dicey. Tampa Bay’s defensive scheme leans heavily on zone looks and disguised coverages - exactly the kind of system that can bait an inexperienced QB into mistakes.
Combine that with pressure up the middle from the Bucs’ interior pass rush, and Ewers could be in for a long afternoon.
Mike Evans 6 REC, 132 YDS vs ATL Tonight.
— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) December 12, 2025
Welcome back Mike.pic.twitter.com/UXIhMVwfFk https://t.co/vccewbUtX6
Expect Tampa Bay to dial up the heat early and often. If they can get Ewers into second-and-long situations, they’ll force him to make quick decisions - and likely, a few bad ones. A two-interception day isn’t out of the question, especially if the Bucs’ defense can disrupt his timing and take away his comfort zone.
The Bottom Line
This game is about more than just records. It’s about identity.
For the Buccaneers, it’s a chance to prove they’re still contenders - and that Mayfield, Evans, and the rest of the offense can find their rhythm when it matters most. For the Dolphins, it’s a test drive of the future, with Ewers under the hood and plenty of questions still unanswered.
Tampa Bay has the edge, both on paper and on the field. If they execute, particularly through the air, they should walk out of Miami with a win - and a pulse in the playoff race.