Three weeks into the 2026 season, the American Conference has delivered exactly what the preseason suggested it might: chaos.
The league’s title picture is still foggy, and that’s putting it mildly. Memphis, UTSA and South Florida sit near the top of the championship odds board, but nobody has separated from the pack. With most teams still waiting to begin conference play, the race is still wide open heading into Week 4.
What has emerged early is a split between the teams that have raised their stock and the ones that have already taken a hit.
Tulsa is one of the early winners. The Golden Hurricane’s Week 1 victory over Oklahoma State remains the American’s only win over a power conference opponent this season, and the 24-10 final barely captures how thoroughly Tulsa controlled the game up front. The Golden Hurricane get another chance to make noise this weekend with a trip to Arkansas.
North Texas has also looked far better than expected under new coach Neal Brown. The Mean Green showed some fight against Indiana in the opener, then crushed UNLV 44-6 before losing a shootout at Texas State. That’s the kind of start that gets attention, even if the record isn’t perfect.
FAU has quietly put itself in the conversation too. The Owls knocked off Navy and now look like a team that could be much better in 2026. After the turnover issues that plagued them in 2025, simply taking better care of the ball could make them a problem for a lot of teams.
Army has kept its usual reputation as a difficult matchup. The Black Knights pushed South Florida and made it clear they’re not going to be an easy out for anyone in the league.
At the other end of the ledger, Navy’s early stumble has changed the tone around the Midshipmen fast. They entered the season with real title buzz, helped by what appeared to be a manageable schedule, but the loss to FAU changed the math. Now Navy may need to win out in conference play to reach the title game, and that road includes Tulsa, UTSA, North Texas and Memphis.
East Carolina is also trending the wrong way. The Pirates opened with Alabama, then took a more troubling loss to Appalachian State in Week 2. They did rebound against Old Dominion, but the offense still doesn’t look like it belongs in the title race.
Tulane has had a rougher start than its supporters probably wanted. The Green Wave barely survived South Alabama at home and struggled badly offensively in the opener at Duke.
Charlotte, meanwhile, was already near the bottom of the conference picture and somehow ended up in a worse spot after losing to FCS-level The Citadel.
The current odds reflect just how unsettled everything is as of Sept. 22:
Memphis (+420)
UTSA (+440)
South Florida (+500)
Tulsa (+800)
Army (+1000)
Tulane (+1000)
Navy (+1100)
North Texas (+1300)
Florida Atlantic (+1400)
East Carolina (+1700)
Temple (+2500)
Rice (+8000)
UAB (+10000)
Charlotte (+40000)
So far, the American has lived up to its reputation as a league with no easy answers. And with conference play still ahead for most of the field, the real scramble is only just beginning.
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