Boise State gets its first home test of the 2026 season on Saturday, and the numbers point to a tight one.
The Broncos are set to host Memphis at renovated Albertsons Stadium in a non-conference matchup that kicks off at 4 p.m. Mountain time in Boise. The game will air live on USA Network.
Boise State enters at 0-1 after a competitive 34-27 loss at No. 6 Oregon to open the season. Memphis comes in at 2-0, fresh off a 27-21 road win over Mountain West favorite UNLV in Week 0 and a 42-24 home victory over Arkansas State last week.
FanDuel has Boise State favored by 8.5 points, with the over/under set at 56.6.
The early read from national writers is split, but the common thread is clear: this should be a physical, competitive game.
On Boise State’s side, one breakdown pointed to the Broncos’ edge up front and on defense. “These American and Pac-12 contenders are built rather similarly.
Their primary strengths include a running back duo and a defensive end duo. Also, both teams are strong defensively at the line of scrimmage but are susceptible to allowing explosive plays in the secondary.
Boise State will be the best defense Memphis has faced to date. The Tigers didn’t face much pressure from Arkansas State or UNLV, and they will be tested much more at the line of scrimmage by Jayden Virgin-Morgan, Max Stege, and a veteran Bronco defense,” Helwick wrote.
Another prediction leaned Boise State’s way as well, while noting the Broncos’ opener showed both promise and some room to grow. “I’ll lean toward Boise State but you could make a case either way.
The Broncos came out of the gate pretty strong versus Oregon but ultimately couldn’t pull off the upset. Boise State ended up with 274 yards, 18 first downs and 4-of-15 on third downs in that opener loss.
… As for Memphis, they looked great on the ground versus Arkansas State, notching 335 rush yards and 8.3 yards per play. The Tigers did throw two picks and gave up 325 yards through the air.”
Not everyone is sold on the Broncos covering, though. One projection favored Memphis to keep things close.
“The Tigers are the more efficient team on a per-play basis, they have cleaner quarterback play, and they are simply healthier and more balanced right now than a Boise State squad still working out its issues in the trenches. Expect a competitive, back-and-forth affair that Memphis keeps close throughout, comfortably staying inside the number,” Tellez wrote.
Boise State will try to defend The Blue and get into the win column for the first time this season.
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