ESPN’s first FPI release of the season gives Memphis a middle-of-the-pack spot in the American Conference race, even as the league looks wide open heading into 2026.
The Tigers are slotted fifth in the conference and 74th overall in the rankings, putting them behind Tulane, East Carolina, Navy and South Florida. Tulane comes in at No. 56 nationally and sits atop the American despite major change of its own, while East Carolina is No. 68 and Navy checks in at No.
- South Florida is just ahead of Memphis at No.
Here’s the full conference order ESPN FPI laid out for the American:
Tulane (56 overall)
East Carolina (68 overall)
Navy (69 overall)
South Florida (73 overall)
Memphis (74 overall)
UTSA (88 overall)
Army (89 overall)
North Texas (90 overall)
Temple (102 overall)
Tulsa (105 overall)
Florida Atlantic (115 overall)
Rice (122 overall)
Charlotte (126 overall)
UAB (128 overall)
FPI is ESPN’s predictive model, and it will keep shifting as the season unfolds. For now, it paints a picture of a conference with plenty of uncertainty. Memphis, South Florida, Tulane and North Texas all have new coaches after their previous head coaches left for power conference jobs, and several of the league’s projected contenders are dealing with major roster turnover.
Tulane’s edge is real, but it’s not exactly a settled picture. The Green Wave lost coach Jon Sumrall to Florida and replaced him with former Southern Miss coach Will Hall, while also navigating the kind of roster churn that has become standard across the Group of Six.
Navy is projected by FPI to be the third-best team in the league, though the Midshipmen have already shown up near the top of several preseason forecasts and are the betting favorites to win the American.
Memphis and South Florida are clustered together for a reason. They are the only two schools expected to be at full revenue sharing in the conference and across the Group of Six, and both are bringing in new coaches - Charles Huff for Memphis and Brian Hartline for South Florida - along with almost entirely rebuilt rosters. Even so, both teams are viewed as loaded with as much talent as anyone in the league.
The Tigers also have two high-profile nonconference road trips on the schedule. Boise State is ranked No. 50 in FPI and UNLV is No. 58, and Memphis will visit both in 2026, facing the Rebels on Aug. 29 and the Broncos on Sept. 12.