Saturday night in Boise carries more than just a nonconference feel. When Memphis visits Albertsons Stadium at 6 p.m. ET on USA Network, the result could ripple straight into the Group of 6 College Football Playoff race.
That’s the view from Rece Davis and “College GameDay” podcast co-host Dan Wetzel, who both said the winner will leave with a major edge in the chase for the Group of 6’s only guaranteed berth. They didn’t land on the same side, though: Wetzel backed Memphis, while Davis went with Boise State at home.
Davis made it clear why he likes the Broncos. Boise State is opening its home schedule with a new north end zone and a refreshed blue field, and Davis expects the kind of game that can swing back and forth before coming down to the final possessions. He also sees the Broncos in a spot where they have to deliver.
"This game for Boise State is probably, not definitively, but probably make-or-break for getting into the Playoff. They will, in theory, be behind the American teams in the rankings, one would think, because it's not conference champion anymore.
It's the highest-ranked team out of the Group of 6. I feel like Boise State needs this.
They're at home. They're celebrating new blue turf.
I'm going with the Broncos."
Boise State’s opener at Oregon offered plenty of evidence that this team can hang with anyone. The Broncos went into Autzen Stadium as a 24.5-point underdog and nearly pulled the upset before falling 34-27 to No.
2 Oregon. Maddux Madsen threw for 181 yards and three touchdowns on 15 of 29 passing, although the offensive line had trouble dealing with pressure.
The Broncos have been a fixture at the top of their league, winning three straight conference titles, with Madsen guiding them to the last two.
Memphis arrives with a very different kind of roster story. Charles Huff spent his first offseason reshaping the team, adding 61 transfers among 81 total newcomers.
The Tigers are 2-0 after a 27-21 Week 0 win over UNLV and a 42-24 victory over Arkansas State. Among the new faces leading the way are quarterback Marcus Stokes, defensive linemen Elijah Kinsler and J'Mond Tapp, and running back Jaylin Carter.
Huff downplayed the urgency around the matchup, saying, "This week, real football team," while also pointing out that ten regular-season games still remain and a loss could come in any of them.
Oddsmakers have Boise State as the favorite to land the Group of 6 Playoff spot at +350, with Memphis listed among the top challengers at +1000. With the playoff format shifting, the Group of 6 is likely to get only one bid in 2026, and the Pac-12 and American are expected to be the strongest leagues in that mix. That makes Saturday’s game a useful head-to-head marker for the committee when December arrives.
Both teams are getting some national recognition already, as each received votes in this week’s AP poll. A win could help either program break into the Top 25.
These schools have met once before, and that one went Memphis’ way in a wild 35-32 Boise State loss in 2023. Ashton Jeanty scored all four Broncos touchdowns in that game. Six weeks later, Boise State moved on from head coach Andy Avalos and elevated Spencer Danielson, who now takes the Broncos into their first Pac-12 season.
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