The Grizzlies have reason to feel good about the young talent they’re seeing early this season, but the NBA’s revised draft lottery setup could end up costing them in a big way in 2027.
Memphis owns an extra first-rounder in 2027, and under the old lottery format, Utah’s rough 1-11 start would have put the Jazz squarely in the mix for the No. 1 pick. That kind of outcome would have given the Grizzlies a shot at a franchise-altering selection. With the system changed, though, Memphis may not be able to cash in the same way.
The key piece is the pick the Grizzlies control from the Jazz, Cavaliers and Timberwolves. Among those three, Utah is the most favorable first-round pick for Memphis. Cleveland has also stumbled a bit compared with expectations, but neither the Cavaliers nor the Timberwolves have been nearly as poor as the Jazz.
If this were the 2025-26 season, Utah would be right in the race for the top pick. But the new lottery rules shift the odds in a way that makes the bottom of the standings less straightforward. The three worst teams now have worse odds than the clubs just behind them, and with so many bad teams in the league this season, the Jazz could still land in the sweet spot with the best odds.
That’s where the Grizzlies’ problem comes in. Memphis would be in position to benefit from a high pick despite its own strong start, but the new format blocks the kind of payoff the old system might have delivered.
There’s also another catch: teams can’t land top-five picks in three straight years, and Utah already had top-five selections in both 2025 and 2026. So even though the pick would transfer to Memphis through the Jaren Jackson Jr. trade, it still can’t end up inside the top five in 2027.
As Brett Siegel noted on November 11, 2026, the Grizzlies were the only team to vote against the new lottery system for this exact reason. If they get Utah’s 2027 pick, the highest it can go is No.
- In a draft viewed as weaker than the previous two, that’s a far cry from landing No. 1 or No.
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