After spending the first half of the season stuck in the Western Conference basement, the Memphis Grizzlies are finally showing signs of life. This isn’t a team built to linger near the lottery.
When you’ve got Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and rookie big man Zach Edey on the roster, expectations are simply higher. And with Executive VP and GM Zach Kleiman making it clear that this franchise isn’t interested in a lost season, the Grizzlies now find themselves at a pivotal juncture - one that could define the rest of their year.
The return of Ja Morant was step one - and it couldn’t have gone much better. In his first game back, Morant dropped 24 points and dished out 13 assists in a win over the Orlando Magic in London.
That performance wasn’t just a reminder of his All-Star caliber; it was a signal that Memphis is ready to shift gears. But while Morant’s presence changes the equation, the math still isn’t easy.
At 18-23, the Grizzlies are 6.5 games behind both the Lakers and Suns, who’ve been trading places in the sixth and seventh seeds. Ahead of them are the Warriors (24-19) and Trail Blazers (21-22), two teams Memphis will have to leapfrog if they want to claw their way into the Play-In - or better.
Now, here’s where things get interesting: the schedule over the next 23 games is about as favorable as it gets. Sixteen of those matchups come against teams either headed for the lottery or barely clinging to Play-In hopes.
Five more are against the very teams they’re chasing - the Warriors and Trail Blazers. In other words, the Grizzlies aren’t just hoping for help; they’ve got a chance to take matters into their own hands.
That stretch runs through early March and includes a rematch against the Brooklyn Nets, who they just beat before heading overseas. Even the tougher games come with caveats. The Denver Nuggets may be without Nikola Jokic, and the Houston Rockets - once a rising threat - have stumbled to a .500 mark over their last 10 games and are underwater in conference play.
The next true litmus test for Memphis comes in early February, when they host the Timberwolves twice in three days. The second of those games, on February 2, is the last one before the trade deadline. Whatever moves the front office makes - or doesn’t - will set the tone for a crucial five-game road trip leading into the All-Star break.
Coming out of that break, the Grizzlies have another tight stretch: four games in six days, three of them at home. After that, four of the next six are on the road, but only the trip to Minnesota looks truly daunting - assuming, of course, that Memphis stays healthy.
And that’s the key here: health and consistency. If Morant, Jackson, and Edey can stay on the floor and build chemistry under head coach Tuomas Iisalo, this team has a real shot to make noise.
The numbers tell the story - going 16-7 over this soft part of the schedule would push Memphis to 34-30. That might not be enough to catch Portland or Golden State outright, but it would absolutely tighten the Play-In race and put pressure on everyone above them.
Head-to-head games against the Trail Blazers (three times) and Warriors (twice) loom large. Those aren’t just games - they’re six-point swings in the standings. If Memphis wants to control its own destiny, those are the must-win matchups.
The Grizzlies aren’t aiming to sneak into tenth and hope for a miracle. The goal is at least the eighth seed, which gives them two chances to win one game and secure a playoff spot.
Ninth would still mean hosting a Play-In game, but the road gets tougher after that. Tenth?
That’s a one-and-done risk they’d rather avoid.
The good news? The opportunity is right in front of them.
The bad news? There’s no room for error.
This stretch of the schedule is a gift, and it’s time for Memphis to unwrap it with urgency.
For a team built around the electric playmaking of Ja Morant and the two-way potential of Jaren Jackson Jr., this is the moment to turn potential into production. If they can stack wins now, the slow start becomes a footnote - not a death sentence.
The hibernation is over. Now it’s time to run.