Week 4 brought a sharp split in ESPN’s latest FPI ratings, with a few teams making real noise and others taking a hard step backward. The numbers are never perfect, but they do a good job of showing which programs left the weekend with momentum and which ones are suddenly staring at a tougher road.
Arkansas had the biggest climb among the power conferences after its 34-6 win over Tulsa, but the leap still comes with a catch. The Hogs are still stuck in the SEC basement, and ESPN’s model gives them just an 8.7% chance to reach six wins.
That’s not exactly a comfortable spot in a league where 14th-place Kentucky is ranked 36th nationally. Vanderbilt and South Carolina are also sitting in the group that FPI sees as unlikely to get to six wins, with the Commodores at 35% and the Gamecocks at 39.9%.
Wisconsin’s 24-20 comeback win at Penn State was the kind of result that can change a season’s tone in a hurry. The Badgers erased a 17-0 deficit and may have done enough to save Luke Fickell’s job. ESPN’s projection now pegs Wisconsin’s most likely record at 8-4, and the model even gives the Badgers a 5.8% chance to make the College Football Playoff.
Stanford also moved up after a 34-27 win over Georgia Tech, though the Cardinal still have a long climb ahead. They remain in the basement of the ACC and, even more strikingly, in the basement of all power four teams. Still, FPI now gives Stanford a 12% chance to get to six wins and qualify for a bowl.
Maryland’s weekend went the opposite direction. The Terps were beaten 54-3 by UCLA, and the loss hit hard in the FPI update. Maryland’s playoff chances dropped to zero, and its chance to get to six wins fell to 12.8%.
SMU, meanwhile, took a step into the middle of the ACC pack after grinding out a 34-24 win over FCS Missouri State. The Mustangs are still assigned a 4.7% shot at the Playoff and a 2.4% chance to win the conference, but the larger picture is more about the kind of season FPI sees ahead: mediocrity looks to be SMU’s lot in 2026.
West Virginia also slid after its 41-24 loss to Oklahoma State, dropping back after a surprising 3-0 start. The Mountaineers are now grouped with TCU, Iowa State and Arizona State among Big 12 teams that ESPN’s model thinks will have trouble getting to six wins.
In Other News...
Mike Locksley Is Suddenly In A Conversation Maryland Fans Dread
A rough stretch can turn the volume up fast in college football, and Mike Locksley is finding himself in the kind of conversation Maryland fans never want to hear in September. The Terrapins are part of a wider wave of coaches feeling the heat after recent losses, with the spotlight now shifting from Sunday recovery mode to bigger questions about where the program is headed and how much patience remains around the job.
Locksley is not alone in that pressure cooker, with names like Shane Beamer, Mike Norvell and Deion Sanders also getting dragged into the same uncomfortable discussion. What makes it especially tricky is that the stakes are not just about on-field results, since buyout numbers and school budgets can shape how these situations unfold long before anybody reaches the point of a change. [Read more 🡒]
Maryland Just Hit A Point Fans Cant Ignore Under Locksley
Marylands Big Ten opener at SECU Stadium turned into the kind of afternoon fans cannot just shrug off. The Terps were routed by UCLA, 54-3, and the lopsided result came with all the problems on display at once, from a sputtering offense to a defense that had no answer once the game started to tilt.
Malik Washingtons rough day only deepened the frustration, with four interceptions, including two pick-sixes, underscoring how quickly things unraveled. Mike Locksley did acknowledge the performance afterward and voiced confidence in his staff to get the program moving in the right direction, but after a loss this severe, Maryland is left facing bigger questions than just one bad Saturday. [Read more 🡒]
Maryland Football Has A New Contender In The MIAA Race
Concordia Preps first appearance in the Maryland Interscholastic Athletic Association A Conference Top 25 came with some real weight behind it, as the No. 20 Eagles moved into the rankings after knocking off then-No. 17 Mount Saint Joseph, 13-7. It is another reminder of how crowded the top end of Maryland high school football can be, especially with Saint Frances Academy still sitting atop the national pecking order and the states usual powers clustered just behind it.
For Maryland fans keeping tabs on the broader football landscape, the bigger question is whether Concordia Prep can stay in that conversation once the schedule stiffens again. The next stretch offers a clear test, with Concordia heading to Archbishop Spalding and Calvert Hall traveling to McDonogh, two matchups that should do plenty to sort out where the new arrival fits among the conferences established names. [Read more 🡒]