Week 2 brought a fresh round of chaos to ESPN’s FPI, and the biggest swings weren’t always tied to the results you’d expect.
Oklahoma State was one of the week’s biggest winners after taking down Oregon, with the 39-31 upset pushing the Cowboys up nearly 20 spots. ESPN now has them projected for six wins and even gives them a 1.4% shot at reaching the College Football Playoff.
That may sound ambitious, but it’s a real step forward for the Cowboys. Oregon, meanwhile, didn’t tumble nearly as far as you might assume.
The Ducks fell just five spots.
NC State also got a major boost after a 73-0 win over Richmond. That kind of blowout clearly caught the attention of the model after the Wolfpack’s brutal Week 0 loss to Virginia. Now ESPN projects NC State for six wins, and in a wildly open ACC, the Wolfpack have a 0.5% chance at the CFP.
Maryland made the biggest leap among Big Ten teams, climbing nearly a dozen spots after beating UConn 38-14. The Terps now have a 2.1% chance to make the Playoff and a 69% shot at bowl eligibility, placing them firmly in the middle of the conference pack.
On the other side of the ledger, Arkansas took a major hit. The Razorbacks were blasted 43-10 by Utah, and the loss dropped them to the SEC basement and near the bottom of the entire Power Four.
Rutgers is the only team below them. ESPN gives Arkansas no chance at the Playoff and only a 2.3% shot at getting to six wins, with the current projection sitting at 3-9.
Minnesota also slid hard after a 38-13 home loss to Mississippi State. The Gophers are now only ahead of Rutgers in ESPN’s Big Ten FPI, with no shot at the Playoff and just a 21% chance of reaching six wins.
And then there’s Washington, which somehow got dinged despite staying unbeaten. The Huskies are 2-0, but ESPN’s computers were unimpressed by their 16-14 win over Utah State.
Washington is now 10th in the Big Ten FPI, with a 2.3% chance at the Playoff and a 67.5% shot at bowl eligibility. Even at 2-0, the Huskies remain one of the lowest-ranked power conference teams in the system.
In Other News...
Maryland's First Real Test Will Say A Lot About The Terps
Maryland has handled the first two weeks the way a program is supposed to, putting away Hampton and UConn and buying itself a little breathing room before the calendar gets serious. Now comes the kind of game that starts to reveal what a team really is, with Virginia Tech coming to College Park for a Week 3 matchup that should tell a lot more than those opening wins ever could.
The Terps will have to navigate it without running back DeJuan Williams for the next few weeks, while Iverson Howard is set to be available after dealing with a recent injury. Virginia Tech brings its own early-season curiosity into the matchup, too, making its first road trip under coach James Franklin in a game that oddsmakers see as close enough to make Maryland a slight underdog and keep the stakes feeling real. [Read more 🡒]
Malik Washington Just Gave Maryland A Reason To Believe Again
Saturday night offered Maryland a cleaner, sharper version of itself in a 38-14 win over UConn, and Malik Washington was at the center of it. The quarterback was efficient from the start, spreading the ball around and keeping the Terps on schedule as the passing game found a rhythm that had been missing at times earlier in the season.
Naeem Abdul-Rahim Gladding and Chris Durr Jr. did plenty of the heavy lifting in the receiving game, giving Maryland a pair of dependable targets when the offense needed a spark. On the other side of the ball, Zion Elee added his first career sack, a small but notable marker for a defense that helped turn a promising showing into a comfortable result, even as the Terps have another concern lurking beyond the box score. [Read more 🡒]
Marylands First Road Test Revealed A Different Level For The Terps
Marylands first road test of the season offered a cleaner look at what the Terps can be when the offense and defense are both in sync. In a 38-14 win over UConn, quarterback Malik Washington was sharp from the start, finishing with 347 passing yards and two touchdowns while the defense settled in after giving up an early score and kept the Huskies from building any momentum.
The bigger takeaway for Michael Locksley was how comfortably Washington managed the game, with the ball spreading to several playmakers as Maryland steadily pulled away. Harry Dalton III helped spark one scoring march, Naeem Abdul-Rahim Gladding added another key play, and the Terps showed the kind of balance that makes a September road game look a lot less stressful than it could have been. [Read more 🡒]