As we flip the calendar to 2026, Maryland men’s basketball finds itself at a crossroads. The Terps are 7-6 overall, winless through two Big Ten games, and facing a January slate that could either spark a turnaround or deepen the early-season struggles. With no more non-conference games on the schedule, it's officially go-time - and the questions are piling up.
At the center of it all is the health of Pharrel Payne, Maryland’s best player and arguably the team’s most important piece on both ends of the floor. His status remains uncertain, and that looms large for a group still searching for its first Big Ten win under head coach Buzz Williams. Williams, for his part, has been mixing and matching lineups in search of a spark - or maybe just a consistent identity - as the Terps head into a critical stretch.
January’s gauntlet: What’s ahead
Maryland has seven games on tap this month, and none of them are freebies. It starts with Oregon on Jan. 2, followed by Indiana (Jan. 7), road trips to UCLA (Jan. 10) and USC (Jan. 13), then back home for Penn State (Jan. 18) before heading to Illinois (Jan. 21) and Michigan State (Jan.
24). According to KenPom, Maryland is favored in just two of those matchups - barely.
The Terps get a slight edge (53%) against Oregon, who shares their 7-6, 0-2 Big Ten record, and a more comfortable 72% projection against Penn State. The other five games? Maryland is facing long odds in four of them, with sub-20% win probabilities.
Oregon up first: A winnable - but tricky - opportunity
Friday’s showdown with Oregon might be the best shot for Williams to notch his first Big Ten win. But even that comes with caveats.
Without Payne, Maryland lacks a true post presence, which could be a problem against Oregon’s seven-footer Nate Bittle. The fifth-year big man is in the midst of a career season, averaging 16.1 points per game while shooting nearly 48% from the field and a dangerous 36.4% from deep.
Oregon also brings some firepower in the backcourt, led by veteran point guard Jackson Shelstad, a high-volume scorer who can heat up in a hurry - though his efficiency has been inconsistent. Baltimore native and former five-star recruit KJ Evans is another name to watch. The junior forward is having a breakout year, adding another layer to an Oregon team that, while flawed, has talent.
That said, the Ducks have their own issues. They rank in the bottom five of the Big Ten in both scoring offense and defense, and they haven’t traveled farther east than Las Vegas this season. So while it’s not a marquee opponent, it’s a game Maryland needs - and one that could build some momentum.
Indiana: Better record, still beatable
Next up is Indiana, a team that looks stronger on paper at 10-3 (1-1 Big Ten) but hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire. The Hoosiers’ best win came at home against Kansas State, which sits outside the top 70 in KenPom. They’re 0-2 in true road games and just 1-3 away from home overall, with their lone road win coming against a struggling Marquette squad.
So while Indiana has the edge in record, it’s not a team that’s proven itself in tough environments. If Maryland can clean up its execution and get more consistent scoring, this is a winnable game - and a potential Quad 2 opportunity that could move up depending on how Indiana’s season unfolds.
The West Coast swing: A tough test
Then comes the real test - back-to-back road games at UCLA and USC, two of the Big Ten’s newest members and both top-40 teams in KenPom and the NET. These are the kinds of trips that can define a season, for better or worse. Just last year, a strong Maryland team stumbled on a similar West Coast swing, dropping a head-scratching game to Washington.
The USC matchup had extra intrigue for Maryland fans, with former Terp Rodney Rice on the Trojans’ roster. But Rice won’t be suiting up - he’s out for the season with a shoulder injury. Even so, these are tough environments against quality teams, and Maryland will need to bring its best to steal one on the road.
Back home, then back into the fire
After the West Coast trip, Maryland returns to College Park to face Penn State, a game that - on paper - is one of the Terps’ most favorable matchups of the year. Only Rutgers is projected to be an easier opponent. But it’s what follows that could make or break the month.
Road games at Illinois and Michigan State loom large. Both teams are consensus top-15 squads and notoriously tough at home.
Illinois, in particular, has been a tough out - though for whatever reason, Maryland has had surprising success against the Illini in recent years. Still, these are the types of games that test your mettle.
If Maryland wants to claw back into NCAA Tournament consideration, it’ll need to steal one of these high-profile matchups. The Terps didn’t beat a single top-100 team in non-conference play, so the margin for error is razor-thin.
Buzz’s challenge: Managing the moment
After Maryland’s latest loss, Williams summed it up with a simple but telling quote:
“What a journey... think we have to be thoughtful in how we manage our emotions, how we manage mentally, how we manage physically. The next 10 weeks are going to be heavier than the last 10 weeks, regardless of the health of our roster.”
That’s a coach who knows the grind is just beginning. The Big Ten doesn’t offer much room to breathe, and with a roster still in flux and a star player sidelined, the challenge ahead is as much mental as it is tactical.
For Maryland, January is about survival - and maybe, just maybe, a spark. If the Terps can find a rhythm, get healthy, and steal a few games they’re not supposed to win, the season’s narrative could shift quickly.
But if they can’t? A long winter could get even longer.