Maryland basketball finally got a much-needed lift with its first Big Ten win of the season against Penn State. And it couldn’t have come at a better time - because what’s ahead is a gauntlet.
The Terps are staring down a brutal three-game stretch: at No. 11 Illinois, at No.
10 Michigan State, and then back home against No. 4 Purdue.
That’s three straight top-10 matchups, something Maryland hasn’t faced since KenPom started tracking data back in 1997. Not even in the last two seasons did the Terps see this kind of elite run.
Maryland sits at 8-10 overall, just 1-6 in the Big Ten. And while the win over Penn State was a step in the right direction, this upcoming stretch is a different beast entirely.
According to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, Maryland has just a 6.5% chance to win its next game at Illinois. That tells you everything about the uphill battle ahead.
Let’s take a closer look at what Maryland is up against.
Illinois (15-3, 6-1 Big Ten)
The Terps have had a strange kind of success against Illinois in recent years.
Maryland has won eight of the last 10 meetings and 12 of the last 15. That’s not a typo.
Even when the Illini have been strong - and they’ve been very strong lately - Maryland has found ways to win.
But this year’s Illinois team is a different kind of challenge. The Illini have the No. 3 offense in the country, and it’s easy to see why.
Freshman guard Keaton Wagler is the real deal, averaging 16.1 points and 3.8 assists while shooting a blistering 42.1% from deep. He’s the frontrunner for Big Ten Freshman of the Year, and he’s the engine behind this high-powered offense.
Even with Kylan Boswell - Illinois’ top perimeter defender and second-leading scorer - dealing with an injury, the Illini are deep. They’ve got four players averaging double figures and seven players who’ve hit at least 20 threes this season.
Their bigs can stretch the floor, and they’re relentless on the glass. Freshman forward David Mirkovic has emerged as one of the Big Ten’s best rebounders, helping Illinois rank among the top 10 nationally in offensive rebounding rate.
Add in the size and versatility of the Ivisic twins, Zvonimir and Tomislav, and it’s clear why this team is so dangerous.
Maryland’s defense, currently ranked near the bottom of the Big Ten, will have its hands full. Guard Diggy Coit has shown he can catch fire, but the Terps will need more than a hot shooting night to keep pace with this Illinois squad.
Michigan State (16-2, 6-1 Big Ten)
If Illinois is all about offensive firepower, Michigan State brings the heat on the other end of the floor.
Tom Izzo’s team owns the No. 1 defense in the nation, per KenPom. They clean up the glass better than anyone - top-ranked in defensive rebounding percentage and top-10 on the offensive boards.
This is vintage Spartans basketball: tough, physical, disciplined.
Jeremy Fears Jr. runs the show from the backcourt. He’s averaging 13.1 points and 8.6 assists - second-most in the country - and he’s a menace on the defensive end.
In the frontcourt, Jaxon Kohler is doing it all. He’s nearly averaging a double-double with 13.9 points and 9.9 rebounds per game, and he’s knocking down threes at a 47.8% clip.
That kind of inside-out threat is rare.
Then there’s Carson Cooper, who anchors the defense with elite rim protection. Scoring against this group is going to be a tall order for Maryland, especially given the Terps’ struggles with consistency on offense.
There are also a couple of familiar names in the Spartans’ rotation. DMV products Cam Ward and Jordan Scott - both former Maryland targets - are contributing solid minutes as freshmen.
Ward is averaging 5.6 points and 4.5 rebounds in limited action, shooting nearly 58% from the field despite struggles at the line and from deep. Scott is logging nearly 17 minutes per game, adding 4.4 points and 3.3 rebounds.
Neither is starring just yet, but both are playing meaningful roles on a top-10 team.
Purdue (17-1, 7-0 Big Ten)
And then there’s Purdue - the juggernaut.
The Boilermakers come in with the No. 1 offense in the country and one of the most complete rosters in college basketball. Braden Smith, the preseason National Player of the Year, is living up to the hype.
He’s averaging 14.7 points while shooting 42.9% from three and leads the nation with 9.4 assists per game. He’s also a disruptive force on defense, averaging nearly two steals per contest.
Purdue’s biggest weakness last year was rebounding, but that’s no longer the case. Oscar Cluff, a transfer from South Dakota State, has stepped in and is pulling down 8.2 rebounds per game.
Meanwhile, Trey Kaufman-Renn - an All-Big Ten first-teamer last season - has taken his rebounding to another level, jumping from 6.5 to 9.1 boards per game. His scoring is down from 20.1 to 12.7, but that hasn’t slowed Purdue’s offense one bit.
This team is elite from every angle. They’re top-25 in both 2-point and 3-point shooting nationally and top-three in the Big Ten in both categories. For a Maryland defense that’s been porous at times, this matchup is about as tough as it gets.
The Bottom Line
Maryland’s win over Penn State was a confidence boost, but this upcoming stretch is a serious test of resilience. Facing three straight top-10 teams - all with different styles, all with elite-level talent - will challenge every part of this Terps roster.
The odds aren’t in Maryland’s favor, but college basketball has a way of delivering surprises. If the Terps can find a spark - whether it’s a breakout performance from Coit, improved defense, or just catching a team on an off night - even stealing one win from this stretch would be a statement.
Because after this three-game gauntlet, we’ll know a lot more about what this Maryland team is made of.