Welcome to Week 10 of the 2026 college football season, and the upset board is loaded again.
Last week, the underdog calls came through in a big way. South Carolina, Iowa State and USC all cashed, and now the goal is to keep that run rolling with another batch of live dogs.
The biggest swing on the slate is Alabama over LSU. There’s just not much reason to be sold on LSU at this point.
The Tigers have piled up points on overmatched opponents, but they still haven’t really taken down anybody of consequence. Their best win may be last week’s 38-17 result against Auburn, and even the Clemson and Texas A&M wins have aged badly.
Now LSU is laying it against an Alabama team that should be healthier coming out of its bye. The way the market is treating LSU suggests it’s one of the nation’s elite teams, and this week should tell us whether that price is real.
Pick: Alabama to win (33% on Kalshi)
Miami over Notre Dame is another spot that stands out. The concern here is Notre Dame’s ability to generate explosive plays against the Canes.
The Irish have been efficient enough on offense for much of the year, but that has come with them avoiding long-yardage situations. That changed in their lone loss to BYU, when they had seven 3rd-and-long reps, and the same issue could show up again this week if early downs get sticky.
Miami’s offense has taken a hit with Malachi Toney out, but the market may be overdoing that adjustment. The Canes still have enough talent to handle the loss.
West Virginia over Texas Tech is the long-shot play, but it comes with a real case. The Mountaineers’ offense has been explosive all season, sitting in the 99th percentile in explosive play rate.
Texas Tech’s defense is solid, but it has been more vulnerable this year with 2025 standouts David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez now in the NFL. Per Game on Paper, the Red Raiders are in the 49th percentile in explosive pass plays allowed.
Texas Tech has the better overall roster, but West Virginia’s offensive profile is unusual enough to make this interesting, especially if the Red Raiders’ offense stalls again. WVU also gets the edge of coming off a bye, while Texas Tech is on its fourth straight game.
Vanderbilt over Mississippi State is mostly a fade of a Bulldogs team that has struggled badly without a healthy Kamario Taylor. Mississippi State has posted negative EPA-per-play numbers in four straight games, and the defense hasn’t offered much help either.
Even Oklahoma was averaging almost 7 yards per play in Starkville a couple of weeks ago. Vanderbilt’s season has been uneven, but the offense can still hit explosive plays, particularly through the air.
That gives the Commodores a real shot here.
Oregon over Ohio State rounds out the list, even if it’s not the showdown anyone expected back in August. Oregon is probably out of the CFP picture, and Dante Moore is done for the year.
Julian Sayin might be, too. Still, the Ducks flashed something last week against Northwestern, especially in a dominant second half, and they look like a different offense when their top wide receivers are healthy.
Ohio State, meanwhile, still doesn’t look settled without Sayin under center. With that quarterback situation hanging over the Buckeyes, this game looks a lot closer than the market suggests.
In Other News...
Whit Weeks Gives LSU Fans Real Hope Entering Alabama Week
The latest SEC injury report offered LSU a small but meaningful bit of optimism heading into Alabama week, with linebacker Whit Weeks moving to doubtful. It is not a clean bill of health, but it does suggest progress for a defense that will need every available piece when the Tigers line up for one of the leagues biggest games.
The report also painted the broader picture for both sides, with several players from LSU and Alabama listed as out, doubtful or questionable. For LSU, Weeks status is the one to watch, because even an uncertain return would matter in a matchup where depth, communication and physicality tend to decide as much as talent does. [Read more 🡒]
LSU Eyes Familiar Defensive Help Before Its Biggest Game Yet
With LSU gearing up for its biggest test yet against Alabama, the Tigers are also looking at a familiar face who knows Baton Rouge well. LSU is reportedly trying to bring former Baylor head coach Dave Aranda back into the fold in an analyst-type role, and Aranda is already in town and showing interest.
Arandas name carries real weight around LSU because he previously served as the Tigers defensive coordinator from 2016 to 2019 before taking over at Baylor. Any move to add him now would come at a pivotal moment, with LSU trying to sharpen every edge it can before the showdown on deck. [Read more 🡒]
LSU Eyes Familiar Coaching Addition With Alabama Stakes Rising
LSU is moving toward a familiar addition on the coaching side, with former Baylor head coach Dave Aranda reportedly set to join Lane Kiffins staff as an analyst. Aranda is no stranger to Baton Rouge, having previously served as LSUs defensive coordinator from 2016 to 2019, and his return would bring an experienced defensive voice back into the building at a time when the Tigers are looking to sharpen every edge.
Aranda was fired by Baylor earlier this season, and he is already in Baton Rouge as LSU works to finalize the hire. For a program that knows what he brought the last time around, the appeal is obvious, even if the exact role is still being sorted out. [Read more 🡒]