Welcome to Week 10 DFS picks.
Last week finally snapped the run. Iowa State’s Aiden Flora blew past his 81.5 rushing-yard projection, ending an eight-pick streak that had landed correctly, even though the card still went 2-1 overall. The goal now is simple: get back to a 3-0 Week 10.
All projections via Underdog.
LSU TE Trey’Dez Green lower than 52.5 receiving yards
Trey’Dez Green has been a steady option when he’s available over the last two seasons, but this number feels too rich. The bigger issue is durability.
Green missed time last year because of injury and also sat out much of October. Two weeks ago, he left the Auburn game early, and while he’s expected to be ready to go Saturday against Alabama, there’s real risk he doesn’t make it through the full game.
Even if he stays on the field, his role isn’t massive. His target share has sat around 17% this season, and that could shrink further with Jackson Harris emerging as a real factor at wide receiver. Alabama’s defense, which ranks in the 80th percentile in EPA-per-pass allowed, should also be focused on Green.
Arizona WR Isaiah Mizell lower than 89.5 receiving yards
I don’t usually go after air raid wideouts, but this is the spot. Isaiah Mizell has ripped off three straight 130-plus-yard receiving games, and two of those topped 180 yards.
He was scorching in October. Still, some regression looks likely here.
He’s third nationally in yards per target among players with at least 40 targets, and that kind of efficiency is hard to sustain.
Arizona’s scoring outlook also matters. The Wildcats are projected for about 26 points this week in most markets, which puts a cap on how much Mizell can realistically do. TCU brings a strong pass defense as well, ranking 12th nationally in EPA-per-play allowed, so this isn’t the kind of matchup that invites another huge number.
Virginia Tech RB Jeffrey Overton Jr. lower than 68.5 rushing yards
Jeffrey Overton Jr. has had a couple of eye-popping outings this season that have boosted his overall numbers, including more than 10 yards per carry against VMI and over 8 yards per carry against Boston College. But the deeper look points the other way. His share of the rushing workload has been trending down since his 209-yard game against Boston College.
That usage drop matters here. He was down to just 36% rushing usage against Clemson, his lowest mark against any P4 opponent this season. SMU’s run defense isn’t the strength of this play, so the call is really about Overton’s role and efficiency rather than the matchup itself.
In Other News...
LSU Fans Will Love What This Alabama Simulation Suggests
A fresh offseason simulation has LSU fans dreaming big, and this one came with a result that would play well in Baton Rouge. EA Sports College Football 27 ran an LSU-Alabama matchup and handed the Tigers a convincing 46-24 win, with the virtual offense rolling from start to finish and a few familiar names driving the action.
Sam Leavitt and Dilin Jones were at the center of it, as the simulation leaned heavily on LSUs ability to move the ball and control the game. It is only a video-game projection, of course, but when a simulated rivalry game tilts that far in LSUs favor, it is the kind of outcome that will get attention from fans looking for any sign that this matchup could break their way. [Read more 🡒]
LSU Fans Will Feel Major Alabama Game-Day Changes This Weekend
With Melania Trump set to attend Saturdays LSU-Alabama game, LSU is bracing for a much different scene around Tiger Stadium than fans are used to. The school said it will have increased traffic, additional security checks and new tailgating restrictions in place for the matchup, all part of the buildup to a high-profile visit that also includes an on-field honor during the game.
The appearance is tied to the launch of a $5 million endowment for the Fostering the Future scholarship fund, giving the weekend an added layer beyond the usual SEC stakes. LSU has also formed a Football Tailgating Steering Committee to guide future game-day planning and help oversee safety measures, a sign that this weekends changes could shape how the program handles big events going forward. [Read more 🡒]
LSU Faces A Season Defining Test With Everything Starting To Tighten
With LSU ranked No. 14 and Alabama coming to Baton Rouge as the No. 5 team in the country, Saturday has the feel of a checkpoint game for both playoff rsums. The Tigers have spent the week talking through the challenge in front of them, with quarterback Sam Leavitt and coach Lane Kiffin both addressing the matchup during media availability, and the stakes hardly need much embellishment at this point.
The timing only adds to the pressure, because this is the kind of November stage where rankings, perception and staying power all start to tighten. LSU also has another program drawing attention on campus, with womens basketball coming off recent performances and an upcoming game that will include a halftime honor for Angel Reese, but for the football team the focus is squarely on whether it can handle one of the biggest tests left on the schedule. [Read more 🡒]