Greg McElroy sees Saturday night in Baton Rouge turning on one brutal matchup: LSU’s pass rush against Texas’ protection.
The ESPN analyst is taking No. 21 LSU to knock off No. 6 Texas, 24-20, in a game he described on his Always College Football Week 11 preview as featuring “probably the most lopsided matchup on the board” among a slate that includes four games between ranked playoff teams.
McElroy’s case starts up front. “LSU has one of the best pass rushes in the country, and Texas has one of the shakiest pass protections,” he said.
That’s a problem for Arch Manning and a Longhorns offense coming off a 34-20 win at Missouri. Manning threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns in that game, but he was also sacked three times. McElroy said the issue is not just the line, but the quarterback’s own approach.
“He does hold the ball looking for the perfect throw, and behind that line, the perfect throw sometimes arrives after the defense arrives,” McElroy said.
The player McElroy singled out is edge rusher Princewill Umanmielen, the Austin native who followed Lane Kiffin from Ole Miss. He expects Umanmielen and the LSU front to test a Texas line that has had trouble handling twists and stunts.
The Longhorns also listed offensive lineman Trevor Goosby as out on their availability report for the Missouri game. McElroy said that if LSU gets to Texas for three sacks, the Longhorns could be stuck “in third-and-long, where it converts just 20% of the time.”
Texas, though, is bringing its own defensive muscle. The Longhorns are first nationally in adjusted defensive EPA per play, according to Game on Paper, and McElroy thinks that keeps the game tight even if LSU creates pressure.
“Texas’ defense is good enough to hold LSU to field goals, which is why I think this stays a fight,” McElroy said.
LSU enters at 6-3 after a 31-13 home loss to Alabama, a game that exposed some issues of its own. Sam Leavitt completed 35 of 47 passes for 380 yards, but the Tigers went 0-for-4 on fourth down and scored one touchdown on four red zone trips. Afterward, Kiffin said, “I wouldn’t think that would equal 13 points,”
Alabama’s late surge in Baton Rouge also led Booger McFarland to call the Crimson Tide a playoff lock, and Texas will try to avoid a similar outcome. LSU’s answer, McElroy said, could be pace. He noted that the Tigers run nearly 80 plays per game and believes that tempo can wear down a defense over four quarters.
“If LSU’s tempo has the Texas linebackers gassed by, say, the fourth quarter, then the best defense on the field stops being the best defense on the field,” McElroy said.
The playoff committee placed Texas sixth and LSU 21st on Tuesday, and the Longhorns are 4-0 against ranked opponents. McElroy said another LSU loss would make its playoff path “a no-go,” while a win would put the Tigers “back in the playoff mix.”
There’s also a personal layer for Manning, a New Orleans native who grew up going to LSU games. But Steve Sarkisian doesn’t expect that to matter much.
“I don’t think he gives a crap, I’ll be honest with you,” Sarkisian said. “I really think he’s thinking about what coverages they’re going to play.”
Kiffin, who recruited Manning at Ole Miss, also had praise for the quarterback, with one obvious exception. “I think he’s an awesome kid and I hope he does really well, obviously outside of Saturday,” Kiffin said.
One more LSU storyline could matter if the Tigers get a boost on defense: linebacker Whit Weeks, who fractured his right fibula against Texas A&M on Sept. 26, was listed as doubtful against Alabama. McElroy said a return against Texas would be “enormous for the LSU defense.”
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