Sam Leavitt’s stock is climbing fast enough that the NFL conversation has already started, but the biggest question around LSU’s quarterback is still the simplest one: does he leave now, or stick around for another season?
Todd McShay thinks Leavitt has the tools scouts covet. The Ringer’s NFL Draft analyst points to the arm talent, the off-platform throws, the willingness to attack tight windows and the ability to extend plays when things break down.
In McShay’s eyes, Leavitt looks like one of the better quarterbacks in a deep 2027 draft class. Still, he’d rather see the former Arizona State quarterback use his final year of eligibility and wait for the 2028 draft.
“Knowing the history of the NFL drafting quarterbacks,” McShay said, “and the correlation between game experience and long-term NFL success, and even shorter, early career NFL success, I'd love to see him back for another year, and we could all wait for the 2028 draft.
“He’s definitely heading into a trajectory of being an early first-round pick.”
That early-round buzz is no longer just theoretical. Leavitt has completed at least 70% of his passes in each of his last five games and thrown 14 touchdown passes during that stretch. He also enters the conversation with Georgia’s Gunner Stockton as the only Southeastern Conference quarterback with a higher Total QBR this season.
The last few weeks have changed the tone around his draft outlook. Dane Brugler of The Athletic said the preseason talk around Leavitt placed him in second-round territory, though his recent play has pushed that idea upward.
“Most of the grades that I heard from NFL scouts coming into the season were in that second-round range,” Brugler said. “Based on the first month of the season, I think that seems maybe a little generous, but he's playing more on that level lately.”
That wasn’t always the case. Leavitt’s start at LSU came with some rough edges, and his first six games each included an interception.
Three of those came against Louisiana Tech. His footwork and upper-body mechanics weren’t always synced up, and that led to some off-target throws.
He also showed a tendency to flee the pocket too quickly and lean on his legs instead of working through the full progression.
The turning point, at least mechanically, came after the hamstring injury he suffered against Texas A&M in Week 4. Since then, he’s been more consistent with his feet and more patient in the pocket.
“(The injury) kind of forced him to remove that from the forefront of his mind, ‘Well, if it’s not there, I’m just going to (run),’ ” McShay said. “ ‘(Instead) I’ve gotta go through my reads.
I’ve got to stay patient in this pocket. I can trust what the read is and where my eyes should go.’
”
Even with the momentum, Leavitt’s decision still feels wide open. Fran Duffy of ALLCITY Network said he’s one of the quarterbacks he’s watching most closely in that gray area between staying and turning pro.
“Of the guys that have that ability to go in or out, (Leavitt) is one of the ones I'm kind of earmarking (where) I'm kind of 50-50 on,” Duffy said. “Whereas Arch, I'm kind of leaning towards him going back.
Dante Moore, I kind of think I'm leaning towards him going back now that he's out for the year. LaNorris Sellers, I think I'd probably lean toward him going back to school.
“So a lot of these other guys, I feel like they probably go back. But Leavitt is one where I am intrigued to see what his decision is.”
A big part of that uncertainty is the quarterback market around him. Oregon’s Dante Moore, Texas’ Arch Manning and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers have all been mentioned as possible early first-rounders, but each has had enough ups and downs to make another year of college football a real possibility. Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker has flashed big-time ability, though he doesn’t have the experience of some of his peers.
There’s another cluster of names in play too: Southern Cal’s Jayden Maiava, Minnesota’s Drake Lindsey, UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava, Missouri’s Austin Simmons, Miami’s Darian Mensah, Notre Dame’s CJ Carr and Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss. Each could land in the first couple of rounds this year or next, but none has separated as a sure thing.
That leaves Leavitt in the middle of a draft class still trying to sort itself out.
McShay believes the safer path is another year in Baton Rouge, especially with what he sees as the right kind of developmental environment under Lane Kiffin at LSU. He pointed to the recent leaps made by quarterbacks such as Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and Joe Burrow after additional college seasons.
Daniels turned that second year at LSU into a Heisman Trophy and the No. 2 overall pick. Nix followed his second season at Oregon with a Heisman finalist campaign and first-round status.
Burrow’s second year at LSU became the stuff of legend: a Heisman, then the No. 1 pick.
But McShay also knows the downside. Dante Moore passed on top-10 draft buzz last year and then suffered a season-ending concussion four games into this season. Garrett Nussmeier’s fifth college year was derailed by nagging oblique and abdominal pain.
Still, McShay keeps coming back to the same conclusion: if Leavitt wants the best version of his NFL future, more time in college may be the smartest play.
“I’m texting Lane (Kiffin) this summer, how excited I was to get to see Sam in that system, and to know what Lane has been able to do for quarterbacks in his history,” McShay said. “And just most recently with Jaxson Dart.
Like, what was Jaxson Dart before he became first round draft pick Jaxson Dart? What was Trinidad Chambliss before, and what is he now?
“It’s a testament to the individuals… but it’s also a testament to kind of the growth that Lane can help guide. And I've always thought that the best plan for Sam is a two-year plan in Baton Rouge.”
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