November has arrived, and with it comes the annual college football ritual: ranking outrage. Tuesday night’s first College Football Playoff rankings of the season delivered plenty of it, with the committee drawing plenty of criticism for some baffling placements and a few decisions that left more questions than answers.
Seven teams, in particular, came out of the reveal with work to do. Some need statement wins.
Others need style points. A few need both.
And for all of them, the path back into the committee’s good graces is now pretty clear.
UCLA may be unbeaten, but the Bruins were treated like a team with very little room to breathe. The committee put a two-loss Texas team ahead of them, which sent a blunt message: UCLA’s win over Oregon in October didn’t move the needle much, and neither did its strength of schedule, which ranks 77th in the country.
Utah, ranked third by the committee, has a schedule toughness that sits just 83rd nationally, so the Bruins’ case clearly isn’t being judged on that front alone. At this point, UCLA probably has to keep winning convincingly, especially in the regular season finale against USC, and then turn in a strong showing in the Big Ten title game.
Notre Dame’s assignment is simpler, and much more immediate. Saturday’s matchup with Miami is a must-win after the Fighting Irish landed 11th in the opening rankings.
Committee chairman Hunter Yurachek made the reasoning plain: “They don’t have that signature win right now.” Beat Miami, and Notre Dame’s position changes fast.
Lose, and Marcus Freeman’s team will have even more reason to think about the upcoming 24-team playoff.
Ohio State, meanwhile, got dinged for what the committee apparently viewed as a rough showing against USC with freshman Luke Fahey under center, and that apparently outweighed the Buckeyes’ win over the fourth-ranked Hoosiers, a game Julian Sayin started before leaving with an injury and Fahey finishing the final eight minutes. Now sitting 12th and squarely on the bubble, Ohio State has to start stacking wins.
But just winning may not be enough. The Buckeyes need the offense to look alive again and need to convince the committee that the Julian Sayin-less version of the attack can be trusted.
Tennessee’s situation is one of the stranger ones in the rankings. The Volunteers hammered Alabama 26-10 a couple of weeks ago, yet they still landed eight spots behind the Crimson Tide.
Tennessee does have a quality loss to then-No. 1 Texas in September, but it sure looks like that Alabama win is carrying most of the load in the committee’s eyes.
The Volunteers need Alabama to keep looking good, Texas to keep climbing, and they’d also help themselves by taking care of Kentucky in Week 10.
LSU is in a similar spot, only the Tigers are being buoyed by quality losses rather than a signature win. Their road defeats to current playoff teams Ole Miss and Kentucky came by a combined nine points, and that appears to be doing more for their ranking than their wins over Texas A&M and Mississippi State.
If LSU wants to force its way in, it needs a marquee victory. The clearest route is beating Alabama and Texas.
That’s a tall order, but if the Tigers can pull that off, the committee may have a hard time keeping them out even if they stumble once more and finish as a three-loss SEC team.
Wake Forest has almost no cushion at all. Even with its lone loss coming to top-ranked Miami, the committee didn’t seem moved by the Demon Deacons’ October run, when they outscored four middling ACC opponents 187-31.
That means the margin for error is basically gone. Wake Forest has to win out and probably has to look good doing it, likely in a rematch with Miami in the ACC title game.
In fact, the Demon Deacons may need to win that game and lock up the autobid just to feel safe.
Boise State’s issue is more complicated because of what’s happening on the injury front and on defense. Starting quarterback Maddux Madsen is day-to-day after leaving last week’s win over Texas State because of injury, and the Broncos have also been flirting with danger all season thanks to a defense that has given up too many explosive plays and sits near the bottom nationally in allowing gains of 20 yards or more.
The next two games won’t make life easier, either, with Colorado State and Oregon State bringing two of the best passing offenses in the Pac-12. Boise State needs the defense to hold up, especially with New Mexico and UTSA right behind it in the race for the Group of 6 autobid.
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For LSU fans, the prediction is worth noting because this is the kind of game that can reshape the SEC race and, with it, the College Football Playoff picture. Georgias margin for error is always slim in conference play, and Ole Miss has already shown it can make life uncomfortable for the Bulldogs, which is why Kellys take adds another layer of intrigue to a matchup Tigers fans will be watching closely. [Read more 🡒]