The SEC’s playoff picture is tightening fast, and LSU is right in the middle of it.
Saturday’s results didn’t leave much room for the lower rung of the league to breathe. In every ranked conference matchup, the higher-ranked team handled business by a wide margin.
No. 12 Ole Miss beat Auburn by 30, No.
11 Texas pushed past Mississippi State by 28, No. 23 Missouri rolled Arkansas by 24 and No.
3 Georgia beat No. 17 Florida by 19.
The one unranked game still went the same way, with South Carolina continuing its rise by knocking off Oklahoma by 17.
That left just two one-loss SEC teams standing: Georgia and Kentucky. Florida is the only two-loss team already out of the mix, and LSU remains one of six teams sitting in that crowded two-loss tier.
Now the Tigers enter the stretch run with the College Football Playoff race narrowing around them. Lane Kiffin and LSU still have No.
9 Alabama, No. 10 Texas, No.
16 Tennessee and Arkansas ahead, and the path gets clearer or messier depending on how those games break.
Georgia and Kentucky sit at the top of the board for now.
Georgia (7-1, 5-1 SEC) still has to navigate a brutal finish: at Ole Miss, vs. Missouri, at South Carolina, vs.
Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs already absorbed a home loss to Auburn, then bounced back by shutting down Florida rusher Jadan Baugh for 38 yards and rattling a pair of young quarterbacks.
Their next test is a trip to Ole Miss, where Trinidad Chambliss is coming off a shaky three-interception game against Texas but had looked like himself again in a runaway win over Auburn.
Missouri, meanwhile, has been all over the map. The Tigers were never in it in a 31-3 loss to Ole Miss two weeks ago, then turned around and hammered Florida, the same Florida team that beat Ole Miss earlier this season.
Kentucky’s path is just as tricky. The Wildcats have to go to Tennessee in Neyland Stadium, the same place LSU will visit, and they also have to travel to Missouri.
Tennessee just lost by three at South Carolina, but it also beat Alabama convincingly at home. There’s still a world where Georgia and Kentucky catch the right breaks and slide into the SEC title game.
There’s also a world where they don’t, and LSU stays alive.
For LSU, the math is more direct. At 3-2 in league play, the Tigers have a chance to beat three two-loss SEC teams and carve out a cleaner route to the playoff. But they have to win first.
Tennessee (6-2, 3-2) still has Kentucky, Texas A&M, LSU and Vanderbilt left. Alabama (6-2, 4-2) gets LSU, Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn. Texas (6-2, 3-2) has Missouri, LSU, Arkansas and Texas A&M.
Those schedules matter because of what’s left on the back end. Tennessee’s final pair of Texas A&M and Vanderbilt has a combined 1-9 conference record.
Alabama closes with Vanderbilt and Auburn, a duo sitting at 2-9. Texas gets Texas A&M and Arkansas, which are 2-8 together.
That makes this weekend especially important. If LSU beats Alabama, Kentucky beats Tennessee and Missouri beats Texas, the Tigers could put themselves in position to essentially knock out Texas and Tennessee in back-to-back weeks.
If LSU loses to Alabama, the road doesn’t disappear. The Tigers would still own head-to-head advantages over Texas and Tennessee. But they could need help elsewhere to keep enough teams behind them.
Ole Miss and Missouri may also end up in the mix.
Ole Miss (6-2, 4-2) still has Georgia, Oklahoma, Wofford and Mississippi State left. Missouri (6-2, 3-2) gets Texas, Georgia, Kentucky and Oklahoma. If Kentucky and Georgia keep winning and LSU slips against Alabama, the Tigers may need both of those teams to fall.
There’s also a wrinkle if LSU beats Texas on Nov. 14.
In that case, it might actually help if Missouri beats Texas this weekend, since that would send the other Tigers into a downward slide before LSU has to deal with them. Missouri still has Georgia and Kentucky ahead, too.
Georgia could also take a bite out of Ole Miss, though that would raise another question: who hands the Rebels a fourth loss, given Ole Miss would still hold the head-to-head edge over a three-loss LSU team?
Oklahoma (4-4, 2-3) has not looked sharp outside of its Red River Rivalry win over Texas, and Mississippi State is now leaning on former LSU quarterback AJ Swann with Kamario Taylor out.
South Carolina and Florida are still hanging around, too, though both are long shots. South Carolina (5-3, 3-3) has Texas A&M, Arkansas, Georgia and Clemson left. Florida (5-3, 3-3) gets Oklahoma, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Florida State.
The Gamecocks have the most interesting case of the two. LaNorris Sellers has 605 rushing yards, 1,016 passing yards and 10 touchdowns in four games, and with Texas A&M and Arkansas up next, South Carolina could be 7-3 before Georgia comes to town.
Florida’s road looks steeper. It would take four straight wins to stay in the conversation, but if the Gators somehow pull it off, the resume would include wins over Ole Miss, Texas and Kentucky.
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