ESPN’s latest College Football Playoff Bubble Watch puts LSU right on the edge of the projected 12-team field, and Saturday’s game against Alabama could be the kind of result that changes the whole picture.
The Tigers are 6-2 and sitting as the SEC’s first team out, while Georgia, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Texas are currently projected to get in. ESPN also has LSU playing some of its sharpest football of the year, pointing to a pair of lopsided wins over Mississippi State and Auburn in which the Tigers outscored those opponents 69-17 combined.
The numbers back up the surge. LSU ranks No. 5 nationally in total efficiency, according to ESPN, but the résumé still has a hole in it: no signature win that really forces the committee’s hand.
That’s why the Alabama matchup looms so large. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives LSU a 57% chance to win.
Here’s how ESPN sorted the SEC in its updated Bubble Watch:
Would Be In: Georgia, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Texas
Last Team In: Ole Miss
First Team Out: LSU
Still In The Mix: Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
ESPN’s writeup on LSU made the case pretty plainly. The Tigers were slotted at No. 12 in Tuesday’s ranking, helped by the recent blowouts and by the season-opening win over Clemson, which the committee is expected to respect.
Even so, LSU is still missing that defining victory, and ESPN noted that Alabama may have the stronger case right now. The Tide do have a 16-point loss at Tennessee, but they also beat Kentucky, which LSU did not.
Both teams were on a bye heading into the first ranking and meet Saturday.
ESPN’s projected bracket has Miami, Georgia, BYU and Notre Dame earning first-round byes. The first-round matchups would be Boise State at Utah, Ole Miss at Indiana, Ohio State at UCLA and Texas at Kentucky. In the quarterfinals, the winners would feed into matchups with Notre Dame, BYU, Georgia and Miami.
In Other News...
Brian Kelly Just Reopened An LSU Debate Fans Thought Was Over
Brian Kelly has been out of the LSU job long enough to settle into his new role as a CBS Sports analyst, but he just gave Tigers fans another reason to revisit the past. With Florida State moving on from Mike Norvell, Kelly surfaced as a name tied to the opening and spoke openly about his history with the Seminoles, while also acknowledging the programs national brand even after its recent struggles.
For LSU, the timing is what makes it linger. Kelly is still owed a buyout from the school, and any fresh coaching speculation around him naturally drags the Tigers back into a conversation they may have hoped was finished. Instead, his comments have reopened an old debate about his next move and what it means for a program that is still sorting through the aftermath of his departure. [Read more 🡒]
LSU Fans Have A New Reason To Worry About Blake Baker
Blake Bakers name is already back in the coaching carousel, and that is not the kind of news LSU fans wanted to see surface in November. The Tigers defensive coordinator has built a strong reputation for turning around defenses and for his recruiting connections across the Southeast, which is exactly why he has emerged as a potential candidate for the Florida State opening after Mike Norvells firing.
For LSU, the concern is less about speculation in a vacuum and more about Bakers history of drawing outside interest. He previously turned down opportunities from Tulane and Memphis to stay in Baton Rouge, but a head-coaching vacancy at a major program is a different kind of test. Florida State is expected to cast a wide net, with names like Manny Diaz, Eli Drinkwitz, Jake Dickert, Kenny Dillingham, Jason Eck, Glenn Schumann, Rhett Lashlee and Jimbo Fisher also in the mix, and LSU will be watching closely to see whether Bakers rise has reached the point where another school tries to pry him away. [Read more 🡒]
LSU Just Got Its First Real Shot To Change Everything
The first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2026 season gave LSU a clear starting point, and it came with both promise and pressure. The Tigers landed at No. 14, which puts them in the mix but still needing a significant climb if they want to turn a solid season into a playoff run.
Next up is a trip through one of the toughest stretches on the schedule, starting with No. 5 Alabama in a game that could reshape LSUs position almost immediately. Three of the Tigers final four regular-season opponents are ranked in the top 13, so there is no shortage of chances to strengthen their case, but also very little margin for error. [Read more 🡒]