Lane Kiffin’s warning from a week ago looks a lot less like a throwaway line now.
“This year in the SEC, I really feel like you can win every game on the schedule,” Kiffin said, “and we can lose every game on the schedule.”
That was before the league spent a wild Saturday ripping up the script. LSU’s 31-0 win over Kamario Taylor-less Mississippi State did little to prove the SEC has leveled out, but almost everyone else in conference play helped make the point.
No. 1 Georgia fell 27-24 at home to unranked Auburn.
No. 6 Alabama, coming off a loss to Georgia, absorbed another SEC defeat at No.
14 Tennessee, 26-10. No.
7 Texas, fresh off its Red River Rivalry loss to Oklahoma, got clipped again, dropping 27-24 to Florida, a team that had recently crashed out of the top 25.
Against that backdrop, LSU’s two road losses - 9-point defeats combined to No. 7 Ole Miss and No.
12 Kentucky - suddenly look a lot more survivable. Kentucky has since beaten Oklahoma to move to 4-1 in SEC play and tie Georgia at the top of the standings, while Ole Miss, after getting hammered by Florida three weeks ago, just thumped No.
13 Missouri 31-3.
That’s the kind of October that can reshape a playoff resume in a hurry. With no undefeated team in the Big Ten or SEC other than UCLA, No. 18 LSU may have seen its path to the College Football Playoff open a little wider.
But that doesn’t mean the road ahead got any smoother.
Auburn comes first, and that game has the feel of a hinge point. Not long ago, LSU’s best shot at redemption looked like it would come after the bye week, with Alabama and Texas waiting in Tiger Stadium. If the Tigers could knock off both, the thinking went, those wins could cover for the two earlier road losses.
That idea still holds some weight, especially with No. 13 Alabama and No.
19 Texas both carrying two SEC losses. And if tight end Trey’Dez Green and linebacker Whit Weeks are back for one or both of those games, LSU’s chances improve.
Still, the game immediately before the bye might matter just as much. Auburn, fresh off its upset of Georgia, hosts LSU in Jordan-Hare Stadium.
LSU is already stuck in an eight-game SEC road losing streak, and Auburn’s home field has a history all its own. The Tigers are 19-19 at home over the last five seasons, but they’ve still won nearly 76 percent of their home games all-time.
The atmosphere figures to be loud after what first-year coach Alex Golesh and his team pulled off in Athens. Quarterback Byrum Brown, who followed Golesh from South Florida, ran for 115 yards against Georgia. Auburn’s defense also picked off Gunner Stockton twice and forced a fumble to finish the upset.
How Auburn handles the emotional high from that win is one thing. What LSU has to deal with in Jordan-Hare is another. Nick Saban has called the place “haunted" because of the way games there seem to turn on missed kicks, pick-sixes and last-second daggers.
And this is where the SEC’s chaos cuts both ways for LSU. It gives the Tigers a better-looking resume before November, but it also sends them into one of the conference’s most unpredictable stadiums.
That uncertainty only gets bigger from there.
Alabama’s next stop is against Texas A&M, a 1-3 team in SEC play. The Tide scored 56 against Mississippi State to open October, then managed only 27 points combined against Georgia and Tennessee. They could rebound quickly, or they could head into a bye on the wrong end of a stunning three-game skid.
Texas has already put up identical 27-24 losses to unranked Oklahoma and Florida, and still has Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Missouri before it arrives in Baton Rouge. Nobody knows exactly where the Longhorns will be by Nov. 14.
Then comes LSU’s trip to Tennessee on Nov. 21, and that one is gaining steam. The now-No. 11 Volunteers have held every conference opponent to 20 points or fewer.
Even the regular-season finale isn’t a given. Arkansas just picked up its first SEC win, beating Vanderbilt 31-21, and while that still looks like a game LSU should win, nothing in this league feels automatic.
So where does that leave the Tigers? In the middle of the SEC’s mess, which is either an opening or a trapdoor.
The best-case scenario is that Sam Leavitt, now the SEC’s passing yards leader, keeps building momentum as he settles into an offense heavily remade through the transfer portal. If LSU gets Green back after the bye and adds Weeks back to its defense at some point, the Tigers could survive a slip against Alabama, Texas or Tennessee and still be sitting at 9-3 with a shot at the playoff.
The other side of the ledger is just as easy to see. LSU could get tripped up at Auburn, face Alabama and Texas when both are rolling again, and run into a Tennessee offense that finally clicks to match its defense. In that version of the season, the Tigers are looking at 8-4 or 7-5.
In Other News...
LSU Heads To Auburn With Two More Starter Questions
LSUs injury picture got a little murkier coming out of the Mississippi State game, and now the Tigers are heading into Auburn with two more starter questions hanging over the week. Princewill Umanmielen and Jackson Harris both went down in the contest, and both figures are likely to land on the injury report as LSU starts sorting out who will be available for a road trip that already figures to test the depth chart.
Umanmielens issue is an upper body injury believed to be head-related, which could put him into concussion protocol, while Harris left with a foot injury and was seen in a boot afterward. Brian Kelly didnt offer any medical updates, though he did indicate Harris is expected to be fine, and LSU is prepared to lean on backups if either player cant go against Auburn. [Read more 🡒]
LSU Just Lost A Key Piece In Will Wades First Season
LSU has settled one eligibility fight before the season even tips, and the result leaves Will Wades first roster with a notable hole. Guard RJ Luis Jr. will not be cleared by the SEC to play for the Tigers after the league determined he violated conference rules tied to signing a professional contract, ending the programs battle over his status and shifting the focus to getting ready for the year ahead.
There is at least one brighter note in Baton Rouge, though, because forward Saliou Niang has been ruled eligible for the season. Niang was drafted by the Cleveland Cavaliers, but his decision to attend college came before recent NCAA rule changes, allowing LSU to keep him in the mix as it tries to move past the Luis situation and sort out its rotation. [Read more 🡒]
LSU-Auburn Just Got More Complicated At Linebacker
LSUs trip to Auburn took a hit when linebacker Whit Weeks suffered a fractured right leg and is expected to miss the upcoming game. Weeks has been a key part of the Tigers defensive plans, so his absence adds another layer of uncertainty to a matchup that already carried plenty of weight.
Auburn is dealing with its own linebacker shakeup after Xaiver Atkins was dismissed from the team ahead of the game, following an earlier suspension for undisclosed disciplinary reasons. Atkins has said he plans to enter the transfer portal, while Auburn coach Alex Golesh has not revealed what led to the discipline, leaving both sides with major questions in the middle of a conference matchup that was already shaping up to be tricky enough. [Read more 🡒]