LSU’s path to the College Football Playoff is going to be decided long before November’s heavyweight stretch even arrives.
The Tigers have the headline-grabbing run coming later - Alabama on Nov. 7, Texas on Nov. 14 and Tennessee on Nov. 21 - but October is where the margin for error gets squeezed. LSU is 4-1 overall and 1-1 in SEC play, and if it wants to keep playoff hopes alive, it probably has to handle business this month before that brutal three-game finish.
The challenge is that October isn’t exactly a breather. Kentucky and Mississippi State are both 4-1, and Auburn already pushed Tennessee to within 10 points in Knoxville. That gives LSU a tricky three-game SEC slate that could turn a promising season into a frustrating one fast.
Kentucky is first, and the Wildcats come in with a little juice of their own. Will Stein, now Kentucky’s head coach, has a personal connection to LSU’s misery from 2007, when he was an 18-year-old fan storming the field after No.
17 Kentucky beat No. 1 LSU in triple overtime.
He’s now guiding another ranked Kentucky team, and he’s the first Kentucky coach to win four of his first five games since Bear Bryant in 1946.
Stein’s roster has some real substance to it, too. Kentucky added talent through the transfer portal and beat Texas A&M, though the Wildcats’ 31-21 win was narrower than LSU’s 35-6 result. They also hung around with Alabama deep into the third quarter before the Crimson Tide pulled away 45-17 with a 32-0 second half.
The Wildcats have also built some momentum recently, beating South Alabama 45-21 and then outlasting South Carolina 35-34 in overtime after erasing a 17-point deficit for the biggest road comeback in program history.
The quarterback play is a big reason Kentucky has become a problem. Notre Dame transfer Kenny Minchey has been efficient, throwing 11 touchdowns against just one interception while completing just over 68% of his passes for 1,148 yards. Kentucky also wants to play with pace and can lean on a two-man rushing attack, with Texas transfer CJ Baxter at 361 yards and Jason Patterson at 355.
That’s where LSU has to be careful. Sam Leavitt’s seven interceptions against eight touchdowns could become a real issue if the Tigers don’t clean it up.
Mississippi State brings a different kind of danger. Alabama took the air out of the Bulldogs in a 56-23 win in Starkville, and the Tide’s second-half surge - a 28-6 edge after halftime - showed how quickly that matchup got away from Mississippi State. Still, the Bulldogs have enough firepower to make LSU work, especially with sophomore quarterback Kamario Taylor.
Taylor has 1,450 passing yards and 17 touchdowns, but Alabama made life miserable for him. He was sacked five times, threw two interceptions and had one returned for a touchdown. After completing 69% of his passes through Mississippi State’s first four games, he was down to 56% against the Tide.
LSU’s defense looks equipped to create problems there. The Tigers are second nationally with 22 sacks, including eight from senior edge Princewill Umanmielen and five from freshman defensive tackle Deuce Geralds.
And this one comes in Tiger Stadium, where LSU is 194-44 in four wins. Still, that doesn’t make it a free pass.
Then comes Auburn, and the Tigers from the Plains have shown enough to keep LSU honest. Auburn opened with a 17-16 escape against Baylor, then beat Southern Miss 43-8, lost a 44-39 shootout to Florida and followed that with a 21-15 win over Vanderbilt.
They also played Tennessee tough, falling 24-14 in Neyland Stadium after it was 17-14 until the Volunteers added a late touchdown with 3:30 left.
The question is what Auburn really is. Was the 39-point explosion a sign of what Alex Golesh’s uptempo system can become, or was it just a one-off from a program still figuring things out? Golesh brought his dual-threat quarterback, Byrum Brown, with him from South Florida, and Brown ran for 107 yards against Tennessee despite taking four sacks.
LSU will need to be ready for an 11 a.m. kickoff at Jordan-Hare Stadium, and it comes right before a bye week. If the Tigers get past Kentucky and Mississippi State, they can’t afford to drift into that one.
There’s a path where LSU reaches 7-1 and 4-1 in SEC play heading into the bye, with tight end Trey’Dez Green healing up. But if the Tigers drop another SEC game in October, the November math gets ugly in a hurry. That would leave them needing to sweep Alabama, Texas and Tennessee just to stay on track.
In Other News...
Former LSU Standouts Are Already Turning Heads In The NFL
The early returns on a pair of former LSU standouts have been hard to miss, even with both players just getting settled in the NFL. Mansoor Delane has already flashed in Kansas City, picking off a pass and staying active around the ball with pass breakups and tackles, while also working through an early injury. It is the kind of start that keeps a coaching staff watching closely, especially for a young defender trying to carve out a role.
Harold Perkins has made his presence felt in Atlanta, too, and his latest outing against the New Orleans Saints stood out as the kind of performance that can change the conversation around a player. He piled up 10 tackles, added half a sack and broke up a pass, a busy stat line that showed the range and urgency LSU fans remember. For both players, the bigger question now is not whether they belong, but how quickly their first impressions can turn into something lasting. [Read more 🡒]
LSU Just Landed A Guard Commitment That Raises This Classs Ceiling
LSUs 2027 recruiting class got a major boost with the commitment of King Gibson, the No. 16 overall prospect in the cycle. The 6-foot-4 combo guard from SPIRE Academy made his choice after official visits to LSU, Providence, Arkansas and Louisville, giving the Tigers a high-level addition with the kind of size and two-way profile that tends to travel well.
Gibson has been evaluated as a physically mature guard with solid size, shooting ability and defensive skills, traits that help explain why this commitment is viewed as such a strong one for LSU. For a program trying to keep stacking talent early in the cycle, landing a player with this ceiling does more than fill a spot - it changes the look of the class. [Read more 🡒]
Kentucky Faces A Huge LSU Test With No Room For Another Slow Start
Kentuckys comeback against South Carolina kept the Wildcats from leaving empty-handed, but it also reinforced the margin for error in the SEC. Down 17-0 before rallying to win 35-34 in overtime, Kentucky still slipped out of the AP Top 25, and first-year coach Will Stein made clear this week that surviving another slow start wont be nearly enough against No. 10 LSU.
The challenge gets even steeper because LSU arrives with its own issues, even while remaining one of the leagues most complete teams on both sides of the ball. Lane Kiffins group has been managing injuries, but the Tigers still have the kind of defensive front and offensive talent that can punish a team before it finds its footing, which leaves Kentucky staring at a test that demands a cleaner start and a full four quarters. [Read more 🡒]