LSU’s path back to the College Football Playoff may come down to how it survives September, and Paul Finebaum believes the early stretch could quickly turn the heat up on Lane Kiffin.
The Tigers are trying to get back to national championship relevance after a six-year playoff absence. Their last trip to the CFP came in 2019, when Joe Burrow helped deliver a perfect season and the program’s most recent national title. Since then, LSU has had quality teams, including double-digit-win seasons in 2022 and 2023 and a nine-win finish in 2024.
Brian Kelly was in charge for all three of those seasons. Last year, he guided LSU to a 4-0 start and a No. 4 ranking, but the wheels came off after that. The Tigers dropped three of their next four games, Kelly’s tenure in Baton Rouge ended, and LSU finished 7-6.
Now the job belongs to former Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, who went 55-19 over six seasons in Oxford. His run there included double-digit wins in four of his final five seasons, capped by an 11-1 campaign last year that sent Ole Miss to its first College Football Playoff.
The problem for LSU is the schedule right out of the gate. The Tigers open with Clemson and then face Ole Miss and Texas A&M within the first four games. On "The Paul Finebaum Show," Finebaum said the stakes could get uncomfortable fast if Kiffin drops two of those matchups.
"I think that two-week stretch is critical," Finebaum said. "If they lose to Ole Miss, and right now I think the trend lines would point that way, then what happens against (Texas) A&M? If they're sitting there with two losses... the pressure on them will be suffocating."
That’s the reality of coaching at LSU. A 2-2 start would not end the playoff chase on the spot, but it would leave almost no room for mistakes the rest of the way. Another loss after that would make the road much steeper.
Kiffin arrives with a track record of building a program into a contender, which is exactly why LSU wanted him. But Baton Rouge does not do patience for long, and the expectations are the same as ever: get to the playoff, or feel the temperature rise in a hurry.
September won’t decide everything about Kiffin’s first season, but it could set the tone. If LSU gets through the opening run cleanly, the playoff conversation stays alive. If it stumbles twice, Finebaum’s warning could start to feel very real.
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