LSU’s first week under Lane Kiffin gave the college football world plenty to chew on, and ESPN’s updated Football Power Index is now putting numbers behind the hype.
After the Tigers rolled Clemson 51-10 in Week 1, the FPI bumped LSU to a projected 9.4 wins, along with a 57.5 percent shot at making the College Football Playoff and a 6.4 percent chance to win the national championship. The model’s outlook arrives with LSU heading into Week 2 against Louisiana Tech and then a rugged SEC stretch that starts in Week 3 at Ole Miss.
ESPN describes the Football Power Index as "a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule."
The numbers give LSU a heavy favorite’s edge in its next game, with a 98.1 percent chance to beat Louisiana Tech on September 12 in Baton Rouge. The opponent is ranked 91st in the FPI, with a projected win total of 6.4.
The first real test on the slate comes quickly after that. LSU’s trip to Ole Miss on September 19 carries a 69.0 percent chance to win, while the Rebels sit 16th in the FPI with a projected 7.4 wins.
Trinidad Chambliss added to the buildup, saying, "Lane Kiffin is at LSU now," Chambliss said. "Coach Weis is at LSU now and some of our former players that were on the team last year are now at LSU and it's starting to get to be a pretty heated rivalry, too, so I'm excited about that."
"I've heard they might need the SWAT, which would be crazy, but Oxford's going to be electric," Chambliss added. "It's going to be insane.
It's going to be a lot more people than it ever has been in Oxford. It'll probably break the attendance record."
Texas A&M comes next on September 26 in Baton Rouge, and the FPI gives LSU a 65.0 percent chance there. The Aggies are 10th in the index with an 8.4 projected win total.
Mike Elko framed the SEC grind this way: "This is a little bit like the son figuring out where the limits are until dad comes home and raises his voice, and then the son goes, 'I was just kidding, I didn't mean any of that,'" Elko said. "I think that's what you're seeing."
LSU should be heavily favored in its next two home dates. McNeese visits Baton Rouge on October 3, and the Tigers own a 99.0 percent chance to win that one. Kentucky then comes to Lexington on October 10, with LSU’s win probability at 86.4 percent; the Wildcats are 40th in the FPI and projected for 4.7 wins.
Mississippi State visits Baton Rouge on October 17, and LSU is listed at 88.4 percent to win. The Bulldogs are 33rd in the rankings with a projected 5.4 wins. Auburn follows on October 24 in Auburn, Ala., where LSU’s win chance drops to 79.8 percent against a team ranked 27th with a 6.4 projected win total.
The back half of the schedule brings the most attention. Alabama comes to Baton Rouge on November 7, and LSU is given a 60.9 percent chance in that matchup.
The Crimson Tide are ninth in the FPI with a projected 9.0 wins. Stephen A.
Smith offered this view of Alabama’s current state: "When we look at the national scope of college football, we look at Kalen DeBoer and the first thing that comes to our mind is, 'He ain't Nick Saban.' … I understand you can't be him but what you don't want to do is fall off the map and be the antithesis of him… There's something missing from Kalen DeBoer in Alabama that existed there for the previous 18 years."
Then comes the biggest number on the board: Texas on November 14 in Baton Rouge. LSU’s chance to win that game sits at 38.2 percent, and the Longhorns are No. 1 in the FPI with a projected 10.2 wins.
Arch Manning said of the matchup at this year’s Manning Passing Academy, "It's going to be really cool. Obviously grew up going to games there every year.
It's a great crowd, and we're excited for the challenge,"
LSU closes with Tennessee on November 21 in Knoxville, Tenn., where the Tigers are given a 68.8 percent chance to win. The Volunteers are 18th in the FPI with a projected 7.1 wins.
The early verdict from the numbers is clear: LSU’s schedule has room for momentum, but the middle and late-season stretch is loaded with the kind of games that will tell the real story.
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Lane Kiffins first year on LSUs sideline brought him his first chance to work a game from the home side at Tiger Stadium, and the setting lived up to the reputation on a night that ended with a win over Clemson. For a coach who has spent plenty of time around big venues, the atmosphere in Baton Rouge is still its own kind of backdrop, and this one offered the full LSU experience right away.
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Even with that threat eased, the issue is hardly settled because the SEC has since signaled it could still pursue other discipline. The debate has also spilled beyond the courtroom and into the media, where Paul Finebaum and Stephen A. Smith have weighed in on whether the conferences response was justified or whether LSU was being singled out for pushing the boundaries in a way others might eventually try too. [Read more 🡒]